000 AXNT20 KNHC 020544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hermine is centered near 29.7N 84.3W at 02/0300 UTC or about 35 nm east of Apalachicola, Florida and about 65 nm southwest of Keaton Beach, Florida moving north-northeast at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moderate are north of 27N east of 86W. The feeding band of the system extends to the Yucatan Peninsula supporting scattered moderate convection south of 22N between 87W-92W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24KNHC for more details. Hurricane Gaston is centered near 38.3N 36.0W at 02/0300 UTC or about 405 nm west of Faial Island in the central Azores and about 480 nm west of Lajes Air Base in the Azores moving east- northeast at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 38N-41N between 30W-35W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis with axis extending from 21N20W to a 1012 mb surface low near 16N21W to 09N20W. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and globalmodels. TPW imagery shows the wave embedded in a area of abundant moisture between 09N-20N. Isolated moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the wave mainly east of 22W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis from 20N39W to 09N40W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough depicted by global models and is embedded within a surge of deep moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N between 39W-44W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N53W where the ITCZ begins and continues to near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N east of 39W and from 09N-12N between 47W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern across the basin Hurricane Hermine which is expected to make landfall within the next hour over the Florida Panhandle. For more information, please refer to the section above. A surface trough extends from 22N94W to 27N86W. Isolated moderate convection is observed southeast of the trough affecting the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche, the Yucatan Peninsula, the southwest Gulf waters including the Florida Straits. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds west of 88W while moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 88W except north of 26N where Hurricane Hermine is enhancing winds and seas. Expect for Hermine to continue moving northeast during the next 24 hours across the Florida Panhandle and southeast CONUS.Winds and seas will decrease over the Gulf waters by this evening through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 16N76W enhancing isolated convection across the waters north of 14N and west of 76W. To the east; a surface trough extend from the Atlantic to the U.S. Virgin Islands region near 18N65W with isolated convection. Another surface trough extends over the Windward Islands from 17N61W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection is related to this trough currently extending from 11N- 14N between 63W-67W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface troughs to continue moving west with convection. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. The surface trough over the Virgin Islands will continue moving westward bringing moisture to the island by Friday supporting showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Gaston continues moving northeast toward the northern Azores Islands. See the Special features above for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms generated by Hurricane Hermine are north of 26N west of 78W. To the southeast; a surface trough extends from 23N59W to the Virgin Island region near 18N65W. Isolated convection prevails along this feature. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N49N and a 1027 mb high near 35N28W. Hurricane Hermine is expected to track inland along the southeast CONUS through the next 24 hours before entering the northwest Atlantic by late Saturday as a tropical storm. Strong southerly winds and high seas will develop over the west Atlantic as the system moves through. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA