000 AXNT20 KNHC 010541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gaston is moving across the central Atlantic with center near 36.0N 45.4W at 01/0300 UTC or about 810 nm west of Faial Island in the central Azores and about 885 nm west of Lajes Air Base in the Azores moving northeast at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. A cluster of moderate convection prevails from 34N-40N between 41W-47W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Hermine is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico centered near 25.8N 87.0W at 01/0300 UTC or about 260 nm south- southwest of Apalachicola, Florida; and about 275 nm west- southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 22N-27N between 85W-89W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection covers the Florida Peninsula south of 30N including the Florida Straits. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered over the west Atlantic near 36.7N 70.1W at 01/0300 UTC or about 280 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and 965 nm west-southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland moving east-northeast at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is sheared to the east of the center from 35N-39N between 66W-69W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic extends its axis from 20N30W to 10N30W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined trough in global models at 700 mb. Isolated convection prevails from 14N-17N between 29W-32W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 19N45W to 09N44W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded within a weak surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated convection is observed at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N17W to 07N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 50W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern across the basin is Tropical Storm Hermine currently centered over the eastern Gulf waters. Please refer to the section above for details. Fair weather prevails across the western half of the basin, mainly west of 90W. The current forecast track takes Tropical Storm Hermina across the Florida Panhandle near the Big Bend Region by late Thursday as a weak Hurricane, then continues moving northeast inland as a storm along the coastal plains of Georgia and the Carolinas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Cloudiness and isolated moderate convection is observed over portions of the west Caribbean west of 80W affecting western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. To the east; an upper level low is centered over Hispaniola near 18N71W supporting cloudiness and isolated convection across the island. An area of isolated moderate convection is also depicted south of 15N between 77W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low remains centered over the island supporting cloudiness and isolated convection. This low will move westward becoming an open trough through Friday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms could develop across the island through that period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Gaston moving through the north-central Atlantic while Tropical Depression Eight is moving off the coast of North Carolina. See the Special Features section above for details. There are also two tropical waves moving across the central and east tropical Atlantic. Please see the section above for details. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails across the western portion of the basin mainly west of 74W affecting the northern Bahamas. To the east; a 1019 mb surface high is centered near 27N62W. A surface trough extends east of the high from 23N53W to 16N55W. No significant convection is related to this feature. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 36N27W. Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to track inland along the southeast CONUS by late Friday and Saturday. This will generate strong southerly winds off the northeast Florida coast with seas building to 10 ft by late Thursday and Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA