000 AXNT20 KNHC 301803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gaston is centered near 32.2N 52.9W at 30/1500 UTC or about 604 nm east of Bermuda and about 1312 nm west of the Azores moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous heavy showers are from 30N to 34N between 50W and 55W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 34.2N 75.3W at 30/1500 UTC or about 61 nm south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers are observed from 32N to 35N between 70W and 81W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 24.0N 87.2W at 30/1500 UTC or about 295 nm west of Key West Florida and about 269 nm west of Havana Cuba moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are observed from 21N to 25N between 85W and 90W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 20N to 24N between 79W and 85W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N to 19N with axis near 21W expected to move at 15 kt within the next 24 hours. The wave is associated with a 1010 mb low that is centered east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N20W. Enhanced Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered showers mainly east of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to 20N with axis near 36W expected to move at 15 kt within the next 24 hours. Enhanced Meteosat imagery show abundant Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment, which is hindering convection at the time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N22W to 07N34W to 07N42W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 07N42W to 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 43W and 51W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern in the basin continues to be Tropical Depression Nine centered in the southeast Gulf under an upper level anticyclonic circulation allowing slow and gradual strengthening during the next several days. See special features section for more details. A weak surface trough remains in place over the northwest Gulf extending from 28N92W to 28N95W to 26N97W. Upper diffluence aloft over this feature support numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms N of 25N W of 94W and scattered showers elsewhere W of 92W. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of 26N. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere in the SW basin. Looking ahead, T.D. Nine is expected to intensify into a tropical storm tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergent flow aloft between an upper anticyclone over T.D. Nine in the southeast Gulf and an upper low east of the Bahamas is supporting scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean N of 18N W of 78W, including western and central Cuba. This convection also extends to the Yucatan Channel and as isolated showers over Hispaniola and Windward Passage. A surface trough is south of Puerto Rico extending from 11N67W to 17N66W. The trough is associated with shallow moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. However, neutral to unfavorable deep layer wind shear in its vicinity limits the convection to scattered showers and isolated tstms from 11N-17N between 64W and 70W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are in the vicinity of the trough between 67W and 75W. Moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere. Trade winds will remain across much of the south-central Caribbean through late Tuesday as high pressure builds north of area. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across the Island due in part to daytime heating but also due to divergent flow aloft between an upper anticyclone over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and an upper low E of the Bahamas. The pattern will be similar through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from active tropical cyclones, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Bahamas and adjacent waters including north of the Bahamas associated with an upper low centered over the coast of Georgia. Elsewhere, the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered SE of the Azores Islands. A surface trough is evident into the ridge from 23N44W to 16N48W with no convection. See special features and tropical waves sections for more information. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS