000 AXNT20 KNHC 292348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gaston is centered near 31.2N 55.2W at 29/2100 UTC or about 495 nm E of Bermuda and about 1450 nm W of the Azores moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 28N-34N between 51W-58W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 33.5N 73.8W at 30/0000 UTC or about 130 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 33N-35N between 73W-76W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 24.0N 84.8W at 29/2100 UTC or about 170 nm WSW of Key West Florida and about 140 nm WNW of Havana Cuba moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-24N between 82W-88W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 17N16W to 09N23W to 10N37W to 09N45W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N45W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N-19N between 13W-18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 46W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 04N-12N between 21W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern is Tropical Depression Nine centered in the SE Gulf waters this evening. The depression finds itself on the eastern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the SE Gulf waters near 23N86W which will allow for slow and gradual strengthening during the next several days. Farther W-NW as the overall synoptic pattern of weaker surface pressures continue across the basin...a weak 1011 mb low is centered off the southern coast of Texas near 27N96W. A surface trough extends from the low E-SE to 25N91W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the NW and north-central Gulf waters N of 26N between 87W-97W. This convection is likely enhanced due to middle to upper level diffluence associated with an upper level low centered near 28N94W. Otherwise...outside of the low pressure areas previously mentioned...recent observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E to NE winds across the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate cyclonic winds across the western Gulf in association with the surface troughing through the overnight hours. By Tuesday...T.D. Nine is expected across central portions of the basin and will begin re-curving to the NE and in the general direction of the Florida Big Bend region... reaching the Florida coast Thursday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge axis extends from over Tropical Depression Nine centered in the SE Gulf of Mexico waters SE to the south- central Caribbean near 14N74W. The ridging is providing an overall diffluent environment aloft in support of scattered showers and tstms occurring generally N of 16N between 68W-85W...including portions of Hispaniola...Jamaica...and Cuba this evening. Farther SW...weaker surface pressures are observed as troughing extending from T.D. Nine links across Central America to the beginning of the Monsoon Trough axis off the coast of southern Mexico in the East Pacific region. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across inland portions of Central America and have the potential to generate localized flooding and possible mud slides through the overnight hours into Tuesday as the precipitation persists. Across the eastern Caribbean...a surface trough is analyzed from NE Venezuela near 09N65W to 13N64W moving W at 10-15 kt. Global models indicate a maximum in mid-level energy moving over the SE Caribbean generating isolated showers and tstms S of 15N between 60W-66W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W and are slightly stronger...fresh to strong...across the south- central Caribbean S of 15N between 66W-75W. As high pressure builds across the SW North Atlc region through Wednesday...the area of fresh to strong trades is expected to expand across the entire central Caribbean between 68W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and tstms associated with an upper level low centered NE of the island near 23N68W are occurring across the island this evening. The upper level low is expected to continue drifting westward to 70W through the overnight and then begin moving N and weakening by Tuesday. Additional precipitation and convection with possible heavy rainfall...flash flooding...and mud slides are anticipated across the island through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from active tropical cyclones...scattered showers and tstms are noted across the SW North Atlc waters on the NE periphery of Tropical Depression Nine centered in the SE Gulf of Mexico. The convection is generally S of 31N W of 75W...including the Bahamas and Florida peninsula. To the east...an upper level low is centered near 23N68W and supports a surface trough from 23N70W to 28N68W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 20N-28N between 64W-73W. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N42W with axis extending E-NE through 32N30W to beyond 40N16W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN