000 AXNT20 KNHC 290540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Gaston remains stationary near 30.6N 55.2W at 29/0300 UTC or about 500 nm east of Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 28N-33N between 53W-56W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 32.2N 72.1W at 29/0300 UTC or about 250 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the southwest quadrant of T.D. Eight. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 23.4N 82.7W at 29/0300 UTC or about 25 nm northwest of Havana Cuba and about 85 nm southwest of Key West Florida moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 21N-23N between 82W-84W. See latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N16W to 09N24W to 09N37W to 08N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N42W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 11W-15W, and from 06N-10N between 49W-62W. Isolated moderate convection is from 12N-15N between 17W-20W...and from 05N-10N between 23W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern continues to be the development and track of Tropical Depression Nine centered in the Florida Straits. The depression is on the southeastern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the eastern Gulf waters near 26N86W which will allow for slow and gradual strengthening during the next several days. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf east of 87W. A weak surface trough extends across the northwest Gulf from near Corpus Christi to 24N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist between the trough and the coastline. Farther south, modest convection is note along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, aligning with a weak local surface trough near the coast moving westward into the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere recent observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate northeast winds across the basin through Monday. By Tuesday, T.D. Nine is expected across central portions of the basin and will begin re-curving to the NE and in the general direction of the Florida Big Bend region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest observations indicate moderate to fresh trade flow over the southern Caribbean, and light easterlies over the northwest and far western Caribbean. The relatively light trade winds are due to a weak pressure gradient in place as T.D. Nine in the Florida Straits and a trough north of Puerto Rico disrupt the effects of the subtropical ridge north of the region. This pattern will persist into early next week, then return to a more typical pattern with a dominant ridge to the north and stronger trade wind flow. Meanwhile an upper level ridge axis extends from over Tropical Depression Nine centered in the Florida Straits southeast to the south- central Caribbean. The ridging is providing an overall diffluent environment aloft in support of scattered showers and tstms occurring generally north of 15N between 75W- 85W, staying mainly offshore. A large area of showers and thunderstorms that were active over much of Central America and southeast Mexico are diminishing and shifting farther west. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, on the southern edge of an upper low centered north of the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level low centered northeast of the island are diminishing over the mountainous central region of Hispaniola, but upper divergence is allowing showers to persist over the western tip of the southern peninsula of Haiti. The upper level low is expected to continue drifting westward to 70W through Monday and then begin moving north and weakening by Tuesday. Additional precipitation and convection with possible heavy rainfall...flash flooding...and mud slides are anticipated across the island through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from active tropical cyclones...scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted across the Bahamas and adjacent waters on the northeast periphery of Tropical Depression Nine centered in the Florida Straits. Farther east, an upper level low is centered near 23N65W and supports a surface trough from the Mona Passage to 26N65W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing south of 25N between 60W and 70W Elsewhere, the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N42W and a stronger 1029 mb high centered west of the Iberian peninsula near 43N16W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CHRISTENSEN