000 AXNT20 KNHC 271742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 28.4N 53.2W at 27/1500 UTC or about 643 nm east-southeast of Bermuda, moving north-west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 26N-31N between 50W-56W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N25W to 09N28W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within an area of slight moisture. No significant convection is noted. Tropical wave in the western Caribbean south of Cuba extends from 21N76W to 17N84W to 11N84W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is well defined at the surface and at 700 mb, and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection is over the W Caribbean within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N30W to 05N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South America near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 45W-54W. Scattered moderate convection is also near Trinidad from 09N-11N between 56W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the W Gulf from 29N93W to 21N93W. Isolated moderate convection S Louisiana, E Texas, and the NW Gulf, N of 28N between 90W-96W. Elsewhere, clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the E Gulf, and Florida, E of 90W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N95W. Upper level diffluence is over Louisiana, and the E Gulf enhancing convection. Expect numerous strong convection to advect over S Florida and the Straits of Florida over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends over the central Bahamas and central Cuba from 25N77W to 21N79W, moving north-west at 10 kt. Numerous strong convection is over central Cuba from 20N-24N between 75W-80W. Localized flooding with mudslides are possible. Further south-east, Scattered moderate convection is over the central Caribbean mostly S of Hispaniola from 13N-18N between 68W-77W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 21N58W producing diffluence over the central Caribbean and enhancing convection. Another small upper level high is centered over the S Bahamas near 22N75W. Expect the trough over central Cuba to be the dominate features over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island. The heavy convection associated with the surface trough is now north-west of the island, and convection due to upper level diffluence is mostly S of the island. Expect more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours however, as residual tropical moisture persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Besides the numerous strong convection over the central Bahamas, scattered showers are over the S Bahamas. Further east, a 1012 low is centered near 31N66W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 26N66W. The system is moving NW at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Tropical Storm Gaston is over the central Atlantic. See above. A 1026 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 40N36W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the trough over central Cuba and the central Bahamas to move to the Straits of Florida with numerous strong convection. Also expect Gaston to continue to move north-west with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa