000 AXNT20 KNHC 271137 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 27.9N 52.0W at 27/0900 UTC or about 715 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 27N-31N between 49W-55W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 27W from 10N-15N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated showers or convection. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends from 20N80W to 11N83W moving west 10 to 15 over past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 19N to the coast of Central America between the wave and 88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 18N16W and continues along 13N23W 8N34W to 5N44W where the ITCZ begins and continues into South America near 5N52W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 11N-13N east of 19W to the coast of west Africa, within 90 nm of a line from 9N21W to 6N40W, within 120 nm of 6N between 41W-50W, and within 75 nm of a line from 8N48W 10N54W to 9N60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough centered along the coast at the Texas/Mexico border covers the west Gulf this morning. An elongated upper low is centered over south Alabama with the trough axis extending from the central Florida peninsula to northwest Mississippi. An upper ridge is anchored over the Yucatan peninsula and extends a ridge axis north along 26N87W then northwest between the above upper troughs to southeast Louisiana. A surface trough is over the west Gulf extending at 27/0900 UTC from 28N93W along 26N93W to 21N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 27N-30N between 86W-95W with isolated showers and thunderstorms dotting the remainder of the east Gulf north of 22N east of the surface trough. The remainder of the west Gulf is under clear skies this morning. The low between Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to drift into the southeast Gulf Sunday then weaken as it moves into the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the Yucatan peninsula dominates the Caribbean south of 20N west of 72W while an upper low over the central Atlantic covers the remainder of the Caribbean. An upper trough extends from the west Atlantic over Cuba near 21N77W then west to the western tip of Cuba creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm along the south coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-18N between 69W-79W. The activity in the west Caribbean is due to the tropical wave. Tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean late in the weekend/first of next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms remain across the island. Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough extends through 32N67W along 27N73W to over Cuba near 21N77W then west to the western tip of Cuba. A surface trough extends from 26N75W through a weak 1009 mb low between the Bahamas and Cuba near 23N77W to over central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from over the Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba between 74W- 78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 29N to the coast of Cuba west of 78W to over the Florida peninsula. A 1010 mb low is centered southwest of Bermuda near 31N66W with a surface trough extending from the low along 29N66W to 27N67W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm northeast semicircle from the low and isolated showers and possible thunderstorms within 90 nm east of the surface trough. A cutoff upper low is in the central Atlantic near 21N57W and covers the east Caribbean. This upper low is drawing moisture away from Tropical Storm Gaston, generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75/90 nm of line from 27N55W 24N59W to 19N60W. The remainder of the east Atlantic north of Tropical Storm Gaston east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a series of highs north of the discussion area and a 1022 mb high near 32N35W. The low between the Bahamas and Cuba will weaken and drift westward into the Straits of Florida through Sunday. The low southwest of Bermuda will drift west toward Georgia and South Carolina this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW