000 AXNT20 KNHC 270552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 27.0N 50.8W at 27/0300 UTC or about 795 nm east-southeast of Bermuda and about 860 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 26N-31N between 48W-53W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 25W/26W from 10N-15N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated showers or convection. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 82W from 10N- 21N moving west near 20 kt over past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb global model trough south of 16N and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-20N between the 80W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 20N16W and continues along 14N21W 10N30W to 4N41W where the ITCZ begins and continues into South America near 4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm south of monsoon trough between 29W- 34W, from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 9N between 39W-49W, and from 8N-10N between 54W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough centered along the coast of Mexico just south of the Rio Grande covers the west Gulf tonight. An elongated upper low is centered over the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee with the trough axis extending from the central Florida peninsula to the lower Mississippi Valley supporting a surface trough that extends from 28N93W to 24N88W. An upper ridge anchored over the Yucatan peninsula extends a ridge axis north along 26N86W then northwest between the above upper troughs to southeast Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the east Gulf from 23N-30N east of 87W to over the Florida peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the area northeast of the surface trough between 87W-93W. Mostly clear skies cover the remainder of the Gulf tonight. A weak surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS anchored by a 1021 mb high over western Pennsylvania. This surface ridge will persist through Saturday night. The low between Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to move into the east Gulf Sunday or Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the Yucatan peninsula dominates the Caribbean west of 71W while an upper low over the central Atlantic covers the remainder of the Caribbean tonight. An upper trough extends from the west Atlantic over Cuba near 21N76W to the western tip of Cuba creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60/75 nm of line from 18N74W to 21N82W including the south coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 14N to over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola between 63W-71W and from 13N-16N between 72W-77W. The activity in the west Caribbean is due to the tropical wave. Tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean late in the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the island. Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough extends through 32N68W along 26N74W east Cuba near 21N76W then west to the western tip of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N to the north coast of Cuba west of 78W to over the Florida peninsula. A surface trough extends from 27N75W through a weak 1009 mb low between the Bahamas and Cuba near 23N76W to over central Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N to over Hispaniola and Cuba between 69W-78W. A weak 1014 mb low is centered near 31N65W with a surface trough extending from the low southwestward along 28N67W to 27N70W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 27N- 33N between 63W-66W. A cutoff upper low is in the central Atlantic near 21N56W and covers the east Caribbean. This upper low is drawing moisture away from Tropical Storm Gaston, generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm of line from 27N54W to 23N60W. The remainder of the east Atlantic north of Tropical Storm Gaston east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a series of highs north of the discussion area. The low between the Bahamas and Cuba will move west-northwest toward the Straits of Florida through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW