000 AXNT20 KNHC 261745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 25.2N 48.3W at 26/1500 UTC or about 925 nm east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and about 965 nm east-southeast of Bermuda, moving north north-west at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 25N-28N between 45W-53W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N22W to 05N24W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within an area of deep moisture with a 700 mb signature. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 21W-26W. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean south of Jamaica extends from 19N76W to 07N76W, moving west at 15 kt. A surface trough has broken away from the wave and extends over the Bahamas and E Cuba from 25N73W to 19N76W, moving north-west. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 07N-12N between 74W-79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Bahamas from 20N-24N between 71W-75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 18N16W to 07N30W to 05N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N50W to the coast of South America near 09N61W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical wave, isolated moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 30W- 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Easterly surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with scattered moderate convection over the central Gulf from 23N-30N between 84W-94W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N90W to 17N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the central Gulf enhancing the convection. Expect additional convection to advect over S Florida and the Straits of Florida over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. In addition, another surface trough is over the western Caribbean from 20N79W to 15N81W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W Caribbean near 19N85W. Another small upper level high is centered over the S Bahamas near 22N73W. Expect the tropical wave, and the trough N of the tropical wave to be the dominate features over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island. The heavy convection associated with the tropical wave is now north-west of the island. Expect more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours however, as residual tropical moisture persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is N of the Bahamas from 27N-29N between 75W-80W. Further east, the tail end of a dissipating quasi-stationary front extends from 31N66W to 28N71W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-33N between 62W-69W. Tropical Storm Gaston is over the central Atlantic. See above. Further east, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 23N-26N between 41W-45W due to upper level diffluence. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N39W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the trough N of the tropical wave to move to the central Bahamas with heavy convection. Expect the dissipating quasi-stationary front to form into a trough. Also expect Gaston to continue to move north north-west with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa