000 AXNT20 KNHC 261141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 23.9N 47.6W at 26/0900 UTC or about 980 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1140 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 23N-26N between 41W-48W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along 22W/23W from 8N-17N with a weak 1009 mb low along the wave near 13N. The wave/low is moving west-southwest near 10 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated showers or convection. Tropical wave in the southwest Atlantic/north Caribbean extends from 26N72W through a weak 1009 mb low near 21N75W to 17N76W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N between 68W and the wave axis and from 23N-25N between 68W-70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 20N16W and continues through the 1009 mb low along the tropical wave then 6N37W to 7N43W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N51W to near 10N60W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120/150 nm of a line from 7N20W 4N36W to 5N42W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are from 8N-11N between 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge is anchored over western North Carolina extending an upper ridge axis southwest to the central Texas coast covering the Gulf waters north of 25N. An elongated upper trough extends from Mexico near Tampico across the south Gulf to west Cuba creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf within 120 nm of line from 26N83W 27N90W to inland over the lower Mississippi Vally near the Louisiana/Texas border. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the remainder of the Gulf except north of 28N east of 88W where clear skies prevail. A weak surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS anchored by a 1020 mb high over western North Carolina. This surface ridge will persist through Saturday night. A strong tropical wave will move into the east Gulf late in the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge dominates the Caribbean this morning anchored off the coast of Honduras and extending an upper ridge axis east to over the Lesser Antilles. An upper trough is north of the Greater Antilles and creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 15N across Jamaica and to Cuba between 76W-82W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to over Hispaniola between 69W-76W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of a line from 15N63W to 17N68W including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The low associated with the tropical wave just north of the Caribbean will continue to move west-northwest. This could bring heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, likely over Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba during the next couple of days. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the island. Heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides will continue over the island through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of upper troughs cover the west Atlantic this morning. At the surface, a surface trough extends from 29N76W to 24N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the surface trough to inland over Florida and through the Straits of Florida. A dissipating stationary front extends through 32N67W to 28N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 27N-31N between 62W and the front. The tropical wave and the associated activity are in the southwest Atlantic. Please see tropical wave section above. A cutoff upper low is in the central Atlantic near 22N54W and is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 24N-29N between 48W-55W. The remainder of the east Atlantic north of Hurricane Gaston east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a series of highs north of the discussion area. A strong tropical wave and associated 1009 mb low will move into the Straits of Florida through late in the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW