000 AXNT20 KNHC 260551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 22.8N 46.4W at 26/0300 UTC or about 935 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1130 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 22N-27N between 40W-48W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along 21W from 10N-18N with a weak 1009 mb low along the wave near 13N. The wave/low is moving southwest near 10 kt over the past 6 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated showers or convection. The 1008 mb low center and surface trough that was in the special Features yesterday, will now be classified as a tropical wave/low again based on scatterometer pass and satellite images on the 26/0600 UTC surface analysis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is analyzed from the 1009 mb low/tropical wave near 13N21W along 6N33W to 8N41W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N49W into South America near 8N60W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 60 nm of a line from 7N20W to 5N24W, from 2N to the monsoon trough between 33W-40W, and from 8N-11N between 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge is anchored over North Carolina extending an upper ridge axis southwest to over Texas covering the Gulf waters north of 25N. An elongated upper trough extends from Mexico near Tampico across the south Gulf to west Cuba creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf from 24N-28N between 82W89W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms dot the remainder of the Gulf except north of 28N east of 89W where clear skies prevail. A weak surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS anchored by a 1019 mb high over western North Carolina. This surface ridge will persist through Saturday night. A low, possibly as a tropical cyclone, could move into the east Gulf late in the weekend or early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge dominates the Caribbean tonight anchored south of Hispaniola and extending an upper ridge axis west to the Yucatan peninsula and east across the Lesser Antilles. An upper trough is north of the Greater Antilles and creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 16N across Jamaica and over Cuba between 75W-81W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 16N to over Hispaniola between 68W-75W. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of a line from Saint Lucia in the Lesser Antilles to 16N68W including all of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The 1008 mb low will track northwestward into the weekend and could produce heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, over Hispaniola. eastern and central Cuba during the next couple of days. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the island due to an upper trough north of the island and the upper ridge in the Caribbean. Heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides will continue over the island through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of upper troughs cover the west Atlantic tonight. At the surface, is a dissipating stationary front that extends through 32N66W to a weak 1014 mb low near 29N69W to 28N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of a line from 28N67W to 31N64W. A surface trough extends from 29N75W to 24N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the surface trough. The third feature is a surface trough that extends from 27N72w to a weak 1008 mb low near 21N74W. This feature will be converted back to a tropical wave and low on the 26/0600 UTC surface analysis. A cutoff upper low is in the central Atlantic near 22N54W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N- 2&n between 48W-55W. The remainder of the east Atlantic north of Hurricane Gaston east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N44W. The 1008 mb low will track northwestward into the weekend. The strongest winds and highest seas are northeast of the low. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW