000 AXNT20 KNHC 210007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 21.2N 49.1W at 20/2100 UTC or about 760 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 21N-23N between 47W-50W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is just inland of western Africa with axis from 20N15W to a 1010 mb low near 13N16W to 06N15W, moving west at 10- 15 kt. This wave is in a very moist area as seen on SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave and surface low also has a 700 mb signature. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 07N-15N between 12W-19W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. This system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while it moves generally west- northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis from 18N37W to a 1009 mb low near 12N38W to 05N38W, moving west at 15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust across the eastern portion of the wave is inhibiting convection in this area, while scattered moderate convection prevails west of the wave's axis from 07N-15N between 38W-45W. Development during the next couple of days should be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis from 19N68W to 10N69W, moving west at 20 kt. Strong dry air subsidence from aloft and Saharan dry air in the wave environment are limiting convection development at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and Central America with axis from 20N86W to 09N87W, moving west at 20 kt. TPW imagery depicts the wave embedded in a moist environment, however, strong dry air subsidence from aloft and unfavorable deep-layer wind shear limits the convection to isolated showers mainly south of 15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to 10N28W to through the 1009 mb low near 12N38W to 09N49W. The ITCZ begins near 09N49W to the coast of South America near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 49W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters N of 22N, anchored by a 1017 mb high near 28N85W. The ridge provides a gentle variable flow across the E-NE basin while E-SE gentle to moderate flow prevails elsewhere. An elongated upper-level low centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W supports isolated showers and thunderstorms across Florida. Dry air subsidence and unfavorable deep-layer wind shear supports fair weather elsewhere. Little change is expected for the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except fresh to strong winds from 11N-14N between 73W-78W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern Caribbean south of 11N between 79W-84W as the Monsoon Trough extends over Panama and N Colombia. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are inland over Central America from 13N-20N. Similar convection is over E Cuba and Hispaniola. Expect the waves to continue to move west with minimal convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Moisture associated with the passage of a tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will support clusters of scattered moderate convection across the island. Mostly fair weather is expected Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern in the Atlantic waters S of 30N continue to be Tropical Storm Fiona and the tropical waves. Please see the special features section, and the tropical wave section, above for details. A 1017 mb high is centered east of the Bahamas near 24N69W. Another 1025 mb high is centered off the coast of Portugal near 41N15W. In the upper levels a small upper level low is centered near 31N45W supporting showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA