000 AXNT20 KNHC 192354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 18.1N 44.4W at 19/2100 UTC or about 980 nm east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles and about 1180 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered strong convection is within a 45 nm radius of 19N44.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from 18N-22N between 43W-46W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N30W to a 1009 mb low near 10N32W moving 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb Global models trough/low and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 60 nm of a line from 15N29W to 12N35W. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64W from 11N- 18N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with 700 mb Global models trough south of 16N. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated showers or convection. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 77W/78W from 10N-20N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb Global models trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N- 18N between 80W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 16N16W through the 1009 mb low to near 12N40W. The ITCZ begins near 11N47W and continues along 10N52W to Tobago. The monsoon trough/ITCZ is disrupted by Tropical Storm Fiona. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 47W-49W and 57W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored in the east Pacific region extending an upper ridge axis across Mexico and east Texas to south Georgia covering the northwest Gulf. An elongated upper trough is centered north of the Yucatan peninsula extending an upper trough northeast across south Florida and southwest to over south Mexico near Veracruz. The diurnal surface trough has developed along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 19/2100 UTC generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that will be moving into the east Bay of Campeche. Afternoon, daytime heating, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing along the north Gulf coast from Tallahassee, Florida to Matagorda Bay, Texas. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic over central Florida to a 1016 mb high near 27N84W to east Texas. This surface ridge will persist through the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan peninsula supporting fresh winds along the northwest coast of the Yucatan through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Benign upper features cover the Caribbean this evening. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia to Costa Rica along 10N and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N east of 80W to inland over Panama to Nicaragua. The remainder of the activity in the west Caribbean is due to the tropical wave. Please see Tropical Wave section above. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have developed inland over Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica and could move east into the Caribbean waters later this evening with the easterly trade winds. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with fair weather this evening. Strong to near gale force trade winds are in the central Caribbean north of Colombia and will gradually diminish early next week. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move through the west Caribbean into the weekend. The east Caribbean tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently over the island west of 70W while clear skies remain over the east Dominican Republic. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will persist through Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern for the central Atlantic this evening is Tropical Storm Fiona moving across the central Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico extends a trough axis northeast across south Florida into the west Atlantic to beyond 32N68W. An upper ridge is anchored north of the Virgin Islands near 24N64W. At the surface, a pair of surface troughs extends from 29N66W to 27N74W and 29N63W to 26N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm north of the first trough and from 24N-27N between 55W-65W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high in the east Atlantic near 29N29W, with a weak 1018 mb high in the southwest Atlantic near 23N66W, then continues across central Florida into the north Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will shift south to along 26N Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW