000 AXNT20 KNHC 171804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The center of Tropical Depression Six at 17/1500 UTC is near 14.0N 36.4W. This position also is about 840 miles/1350 km to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Please read the latest NHC intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 13N to 15N between 36W and 37W. Isolated moderate from 11N to 17N between 35W and 40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 17N southward. It is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave moved away from the area of Tropical Depression Six. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 18N between 40W and 46W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N62W 10N61W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 09N to 14N between 58W and 63W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving across the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, and Nicaragua, toward El Salvador. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 19N between 85W and 90W. Isolated moderate from 19N to 22N between 85W and 90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 13N20W, and 14N28W. The ITCZ is along 07N44W 07N52W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 07N to 16N from 30W eastward, and elsewhere from 05N to 12N between 36W and 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area, associated with the 24N79W cyclonic circulation center, that is described in the Atlantic Ocean section. More cyclonic wind flow continues into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low pressure is in the isobaric analysis, from the west central sections into the southwestern corner of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong along the coast from the upper Texas coast to 20N95W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough is along 59W/60W from 17N southward, moving into the eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in water vapor imagery, from 72W eastward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 09N to 14N between 58W and 63W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of the area. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 24N79W cyclonic circulation center, that is described in the Atlantic Ocean section. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.55 in Acapulco Mexico, 0.08 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.04 in Guadeloupe, 0.02 in Trinidad, and 0.01 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N81W, across Nicaragua, beyond 13N87W into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Numerous strong from 10N southward between 80W and 82W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation from 10N to 13N between 82W and the coastal plains of Nicaragua. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level S to SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the first half of day one will consist of S wind flow with a ridge that will be to the east of Hispaniola. E wind flow will cover the area for part of day one, followed by SE and S wind flow for the rest of the two day forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the two day forecast period will consist of SE wind at first, followed by east wind flow, and then NE wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind flow will move across the area for the next 48 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N79W, in the waters that are between Andros Island in the Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and Cuba. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba and the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea, and the Bahamas. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N in the Caribbean Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 20N62W 23N63W 26N64W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N to 23N between 61W and 62W, and from 26N to 28N between 59W and 66W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 58W and 69W. An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic circulation center, to a 28N33W cyclonic circulation center, to a 23N45W cyclonic circulation center, toward a 59W/60W inverted trough that is entering the the eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 27N northward between Africa and 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ MT