000 AXNT20 KNHC 170545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 17/0300 UTC, the low pressure and tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic developed into T.D. Six with center near 12.6N/34.1W. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40kt. T.D. Six is moving west at about 12 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N-15N between 33W-36W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis from 25N58W to 16N59N, moving west at about 20 kt. The wave coincides with a westward surge of abundant moisture as depicted by SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery from 18N-29N between 56W-62W. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time as Saharan dust and dry air surrounds this feature inhibiting any activity. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis extending from 20N82W to 11N81W, moving west at about 20 kt. The wave coincides with a maximum in potential vorticity over the SW Caribbean mainly south of 20N between 76W-83W. Isolated moderate convection prevails along and west of the wave axis between 82W- 86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 14N32W then resumes west of the Special Features low near 10N35W to 07N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N42W to 07N52W. Aside from convection associated with the low along 34W, scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 18W- 25W and from 06N-09N between 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Arklatex region to the central Rio Grande River valley near 29N100W providing low-level focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms across much of southern Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley. This activity extends southward mainly west of 92W across the Gulf and east coast of Mexico. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of east- northeasterly flow aloft on the western periphery of an upper- level low centered over the Florida Straits near 24N79W. Isolated showers are observed across the area east of 88W. A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic across the northern portion of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate easterly flow over the area. Expect little change during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. To the south, the presence of the Monsoon Trough is enhancing convection south of 11N between 80W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin except between 70W-80W where fresh to strong trades prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave over the western Caribbean to continue moving west across Central America enhancing convection. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern portion of the basin with convection affecting the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. ...HISPANIOLA... Southwesterly flow aloft is noted over the island supported by the interaction of an upper-level low centered north of Cuba near 24N79W and an upper-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic near 22N59W. Fair weather will continue through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.D. Six and a tropical wave are moving across the basin. Please refer to the sections above for details. Isolated showers are observed across the western Atlantic generally west of 73W as strong easterly flow aloft is noted between an upper-level low centered over the Florida Straits near 24N79W and an upper-level anticyclonic circulation centered off the coast of the Mid- Atlantic near 38N67W. The remainder of the area is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1026 mb high centered near 31N54W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA