000 AXNT20 KNHC 161721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic about 500 nm southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis from 14N31W to 06N31W. A 1008 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 10N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-13N between 29W-35W. The wave is in a moist environment with a noticeable 700 mb signature. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves northwestward toward the central tropical Atlantic. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is over the Central Atlantic from 19N54W to 07N55N moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery, however, dry air with Saharan dust is wrapping around the west side of the wave. The wave axis is best defined at the surface. Isolated moderate convection is W of the wave axis from from 18N-22N between 54W-58W. Similar convection is S of the wave axis from 05N-09N between 52W-60W. Tropical wave is over the Central Caribbean from 18N76W to 09N76W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is a low amplitude wave. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave is defined both at the surface and 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is W of the wave axis from 13N-19N between 80W-85W. Similar convection is S of the wave axis from 07N-11N between 72W-85W mostly associated with the monsoon trough. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to 13N20W to 10N31W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 08N50W to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Africa from 10N-18N between 14W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends over Central Texas from 34N95W to 29N100W with isolated moderate convection reaching the Texas coast. The Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE surface flow. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between 93W-97W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over the E Gulf E of 89W. Scattered showers are over Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N92W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the frontal system to remain N of the Gulf. Also expect additional convection over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the Central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the Bahamas near 23N76W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west over the central and western Caribbean with convection. Expect little change elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 22N-30N between 70W-80W to include the Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 33N68W. Another 1026 mb high is located over the central Atlantic near 32N53W. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate weather features for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa