000 AXNT20 KNHC 161036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic at about 390 nm southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis that extends from 14N30W to 06N30W. A 1008 mb low was left behind by the wave centered near 09N28W. Clusters of moderate convection are noted from 07N- 13N between 27W-36W. These features are in a moist environment and the wave has a noticeable 700 mb signature. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central tropical Atlantic. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium change of tropical development through the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis from 20N57W to 08N57N moving west at around 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. However, dry air with Saharan dust is wrapping around the west side of the wave inhibiting significant convection at this time. The wave has a classic V-structure noticed on satellite imagery. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis that extends from 17N75W to 11N75W, moving west at about 20 kt during the past 24 hours. A low amplitude bulge of moisture extends from the southern portion of the wave to about 16N as noted on the TPW imagery. This moisture is forecast to remain south of 20N as the wave continues west through the central Caribbean through the day. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 20N17W to the Special Feature low near 10N28W to 08N40W. The ITCZ begins near 08N40W and continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N and west of 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated upper-level low extends across the central Gulf with axis along 90W. This feature is enhancing isolated moderate convection across the whole basin. To the south; scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico and is moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 20N. A thermal surface trough is near this convection extending from 20N91W to 17N94W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate southeasterly flow across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the upper-level low to dissipate. Convection will persist across the southwest Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean, south of Cuba from 18N-21N between 80W-85W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean north of Costa Rica and Panama due to the proximity of the Monsoon Trough. Scatterometer data and buoys observations indicate fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to persist through mid-week, increasing to near gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Model guidance suggests that abundant moisture will prevail across the area through the next 24 hours which could induce showers and thunderstorms when combined with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft supports isolated moderate convection west of 72W. Surface ridge dominates the reminder of the area anchored by a pair of 1025 mb high centered along 33N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over western Africa is producing near gale force winds from the northeast across the Canary Islands as noted in recent scatterometer data. The surface ridge will persist through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA