000 AXNT20 KNHC 151728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 16N25W to 06N26W, moving W at 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 10N26W. The wave is in a moist environment with good 700 mb signature. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 05N-13N between 23W-34W. Tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 20N45W to 09N46N moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery, however, dry air with Saharan dust is wrapping around the west side of the wave. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is over a small area within 60 nm of 20N50W. Tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean from 18N66W to 10N66W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is a low amplitude wave. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave is better defined at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between 65W-72W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to 10N26W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 09N43W to the coast of South America near 06N57W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is along the coast of Africa from 06N-11N between 13W-16W. Similar convection is from 04N-10N between 49W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends over Central Texas from 34N95W to 28N100W with isolated moderate convection reaching the Texas coast. The Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE surface flow. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 20N-25N between 92W-97W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over the E Gulf E of 89W. Scattered showers are over Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over E Texas near 29N95W with significant upper level moisture. A small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N87W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the frontal system to remain N of the Gulf. Also expect additional convection over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 17N between 81W-87W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia, the SW Caribbean S of 12N, Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 15N66W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west over the south central Caribbean with convection. Expect little change elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Expect the convection associated with the tropical wave to remain south of the island over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. Isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 22N-30N between 63W-80W to include the Bahamas. A 1025 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 33N65W. Another 1024 mb high is located over the E Atlantic near 32N36W. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate weather features for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa