000 AXNT20 KNHC 151041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending 16N25W to a 1010 mb surface low near 11N25W to 07N25W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a very moist environment with favorable deep-layer wind shear that along with diffluent flow in the upper levels support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 06N-12N between 25W-31W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis 21N44W to 09N44W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. TPW imagery shows dry air intrusion within this wave which continues to hinder convection at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N64W to 10N64W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The presence of Saharan dust and dry air coupled with the unfavorable deep-layer wind shear that prevails across the E Caribbean, are limiting the convection associated with this wave to isolated showers from 13N-15N between 63W-69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to 11N25W to 11N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 11N35W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave/low system along 25W, no significant activity is related to any of the boundaries at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low centered over the northeast portion of the basin near 28N85W enhancing convection across the eastern Gulf mainly east of 89W. To the southwest; a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N94W with isolated showers along it. A diffluent flow aloft across northern Central America and southern Mexico is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms that are moving over the southwest Gulf waters mainly south of 21N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge that extends from the Atlantic across the northern Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. Upper-level diffluence prevails across portion of the western Caribbean enhancing convection across the adjacent waters north of Honduras, Jamaica, and southern Cuba. To the south; the proximity of the Monsoon Trough is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 12N and west of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except fresh to strong winds south of 16N between 66W-73W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next 24-48 hours as a tropical wave approaches from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated convection prevails over the western Atlantic west of 74W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. To the east; a surface trough extends from 28N74W to 31N72W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by three highs centered along 65W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical waves to continue moving west. Convection will prevail along the wave currently located along 25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA