000 AXNT20 KNHC 150538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending 16N21W to a 1009 mb surface low near 10N20W to 07N20W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 18 hours. The wave is in a very moist environment with favorable deep-layer wind shear that along with diffluent flow in the upper levels support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 07N-13N between 21W-29W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis 21N41W to 09N41W, moving west at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours. TPW imagery shows dry air intrusion within this wave which is hinderingconvection at this time. A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean with axis extending from 17N62W to 10N62W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The presence of Saharan dust and dry air coupled with unfavorable deep-layer wind shear in the E Caribbean is limiting the convection associated with this wave to isolated showers from 12N-15N between 62W-67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 08N37W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N37W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave/low system along 21W, no significant activity is related to any of the boundaries at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low centered over the northeast portion of the basin near 29N85W enhancing convection across the eastern Gulf mainly east of 86W. To the southwest; a pair of surface troughs extend across the Bay of Campeche with isolated showers. A diffluent flow aloft across northern Central America and southern Mexico is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are moving over the southwest Gulf waters mainly south of 20N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge that extends from the Atlantic across the northern Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. Upper-level diffluence prevails across portion of the western Caribbean enhancing convection across the adjacent waters north of Honduras, Jamaica, and southern Cuba. To the south; the proximity of the Monsoon Trough is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 12N and west of 79W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except fresh to strong winds south of 16N between 66W- 73W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated convection is observed over the southwestern portion of the island at this time. This activity will dissipate overnight. Showers are expected during the next 24-48 hours as a tropical wave approaches from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated convection prevails over the western Atlantic west of 77W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. To the east; a surface trough extends from 28N74W to 32N71W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by three highs centered along 65W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical waves to continue moving west. Convection will prevail along the wave currently located along 21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA