000 AXNT20 KNHC 150004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 07N-17N with axis near 21W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 12 hours. The wave is in a very moist and favorable deep layer wind shear environment that along with diffluent flow in the upper levels support a cluster of heavy showers and isolated tstms from 09N-12N between 19W and 23W and scattered heavy showers elsewhere from 07N-13N E of 28W. Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 07N-20N with axis near 39W, moving W at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Both CIRA LPW and TPW imagery show dry air intrusion in the wave environment. Even though the wave it is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear, the presence of Saharan dry air or dust hinder convection at the time. Tropical wave entering the E Caribbean extends from 08N-17N with axis near 61W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The presence of Saharan dry air and dust and unfavorable deep layer wind shear in the NE Caribbean is limiting the convection associated with this wave to scattered showers S of 15N between 58W and 67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 07N24W to 07N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N37W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. For information about convection see the tropical waves section. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low centered over the NE basin and a middle to upper level inverted trough moving across the Yucatan Peninsula generate diffluent flow aloft over the SE Gulf waters. This unstable wind pattern aloft along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean by SE flow support scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 27N E of 90W. Remnant energy and moisture associated with the passage of a tropical wave currently over the E Pacific waters support scattered heavy showers over the E Bay of Campeche while a surface trough with axis along 95W S of 23N support isolated showers in the W Bay of Campeche. Upper level ridging and unfavorable deep layer wind shear only allow for isolated showers elsewhere. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the Florida peninsula west- southwest to near 25N90W. Generally moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail and are forecast to continue through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Various regions of upper level diffluence are supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms across Honduras and Nicaragua, Cuba and Hispaniola as well as adjacent waters. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough support similar convection within 60 nm off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles supporting scattered showers in the SE basin. For more information see the tropical waves section. Otherwise...fresh to strong winds are in the south-central Caribbean expanding E and W through Monday. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to the central Caribbean by Tuesday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level diffluence continue to support scattered heavy showers and tstms across the Island that is forecast to continue through Monday sunrise. Showers are possible to resume early Tuesday morning as a tropical wave approaches from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico supports a cluster of heavy showers and tstms over N Florida that extends offshore to 79W N of 28N. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 35N27W providing ample subsidence and relatively dry and stable conditions across those portions of the Atlantic basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS