000 AXNT20 KNHC 140539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 19N33W to 09N34W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. Despite the fact that TPW imagery depicts moderate moisture in this wave's environment, no convection is observed at this time as Saharan dust and neutral to unfavorable deep-layer wind shear combine to inhibit any activity. A tropical wave is reaching the southeastern Caribbean with axis extending from 15N55W to 04N56W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours. TPW imagery depicts moderate moisture within this wave. However, no significant convection is related to the northern portion of this feature at this time as deep-layer wind shear prevails across the area. Isolated moderate convection is observed across the southern portion of the wave affecting portions of Suriname mainly south of 05N between 55W-58W. A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis from 21N89W to 11N91W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral deep-layer wind shear that supports scattered moderate convection over northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 10N26W to 07N40W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N40W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 06N-12N between 16W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the section above for details. A cluster of moderate convection prevails across the northwestern Gulf mainly north of 27N between 92W-97W. This convection is associated to a 1007 mb surface low centered over eastern Texas. This low extends a stationary front over southern Texas and northern Mexico with isolated showers. Across the eastern portion of the basin, an upper-level low is centered over the Florida Peninsula enhancing convection over the Florida Straits east of 83W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate southeasterly flow across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low centered over the Florida Peninsula, extends its trough reaching the western Caribbean enhancing cloudiness and convection west of 77W. To the east; a surface trough extends from 20N72W to 11N73W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the trough affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters north of 16N between 68W-73W. To the south; the Monsoon trough extends north of Costa Rica and Panama enhancing convection over the waters south of 11N between 76W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin except east of 65W where gentle to moderate trades prevail. Expect for convection to continue across the western Caribbean during the next 24 hours supported by the same upper-level trough. The surface trough over Hispaniola and central Caribbean will move west while weakening. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough with axis along 72W is supporting scattered moderate convection across the island at this time. This activity will continue through the next 24 hours convection as the trough moves west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low centered over southern Florida is enhancing convection across the western Atlantic mainly west of 78W. To the east; three surface troughs were analyzed between 60W-75W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 35N60W and a 1029 mb high near 37N27W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA