000 AXNT20 KNHC 131031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N25W to 20N28W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing centered near 10N30W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 07N52W to 14N51W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 50W-56W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 10N. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 51W-54W. Tropical wave extends from 11N88W to 20N87W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 85W-91W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N-21N between 79W- 85W...and from 11N-16N between 87W-92W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to 09N30W to 09N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N42W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N- 12N between 08W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 24W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... North-northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf this morning between an upper level anticyclone centered over north-central Mexico and an upper level low centered over Andros Island in the Bahamas near 24N78W. More importantly...a maximum in mid-level energy is focused over the north-central Gulf waters generating an area of scattered showers and tstms N of 25N between 88W-96W. This area of convection is noted on the southern periphery of a weak area of surface low pressure centered across the Arklatex region as a 1008 mb low centered near 32N92W. This low is expected to merge with another 1008 mb low and associated frontal boundary centered across eastern Texas in the vicinity of 33N94W. The low pressure area is expected to move NE towards the Great Lakes region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the Mexico coast near 22N98W. Generally moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly stronger S-SW winds expected across the far NW waters through Sunday. The ridge axis will slowly lift northward through the weekend with moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along 88W and mid-level energy centered over the northern portion of the wave axis. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 14N- 22N between 76W-87W. Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed from 14N69W to 18N64W. Maximum low-level moisture convergence and a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the eastern Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms generally E of 70W and S of 14N between 70W-74W. Otherwise...trades will range from moderate to fresh breeze levels and gradually increase fresh to strong across the central waters on Sunday generally between 67W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered northwest of the island near 24N78W providing moist southerly flow aloft and ample middle to upper level instability for the region. As a result...isolated showers and tstms are anticipated through Sunday as the upper level feature drifts westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered over Andros Island near 24N78W providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and stable conditions aloft. However...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the far western waters S of 30N W of 76W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under fairly tranquil conditions this morning. Farther east...a weakness within the subtropical ridging is analyzed as a pair of surface troughs...one extending from 26N72W to 30N70W and the other extending from 28N65W to 31N62W. Both boundaries are supportive of isolated showers noted from 26N-31N between 60W-75W. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across the Azores near 38N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN