000 AXNT20 KNHC 130505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N27W to 20N26W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing centered near 10N28W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N- 10N between 22W-29W. Tropical wave extends from 06N49W to 14N49W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 47W-53W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 10N. Isolated moderate convection is from 09N-13N between 47W-53W. Tropical wave extends from 13N87W to 21N86W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 82W-90W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 17N-22N between 82W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-15N between 87W-89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to 09N30W to 08N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N44W to 08N50W to 06N57W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 29W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... North-northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf this evening between an upper level anticyclone centered over north-central Mexico and an upper level low centered over Andros Island in the Bahamas near 24N78W. More importantly...a maximum in mid-level energy is focused over the north-central Gulf waters generating an area of scattered showers and tstms N of 26N between 88W-95W. This area of convection is noted on the southern periphery of a weak area of surface low pressure centered across the Arklatex region as a 1005 mb low centered near 33N95W. This low is expected to merge with a 1006 mb low and associated frontal boundary centered across the Red River valley and move NE towards the Great Lakes region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the Mexico coast near 22N97W. Generally moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly stronger S-SW winds expected across the far NW waters through Sunday. The ridge axis will slowly lift northward through the weekend with moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along 87W and mid-level energy centered over the northern portion of the wave axis. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 17N-22N between 81W-88W. The unsettled weather persists farther east within the southern periphery of a broad upper level low centered over Andros Island in the Bahamas near 24N78W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 16N between 73W-81W...including the Windward Passage and portions of eastern and central Cuba. Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed from 13N64W to 17N61W. Maximum low-level moisture convergence and a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the eastern Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms generally E of 70W. Otherwise...trades will range from moderate to fresh breeze levels through the overnight hours and gradually increase fresh to strong across the central waters on Sunday generally between 67W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered northwest of the island near 24N78W providing moist southerly flow aloft and ample middle to upper level instability for the region. As a result...isolated showers and tstms are anticipated through Sunday as the upper level feature drifts westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered over Andros Island near 24N78W providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and stable conditions aloft. However...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the far western waters S of 29N W of 76W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under fairly tranquil conditions this evening. Farther east...a weakness within the subtropical ridging is analyzed as a surface trough extending from 28N65W to 31N59W and another surface trough to the SE from 18N57W to 26N55W. Both boundaries are supportive of isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the troughs. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered across the Azores near 39N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN