000 AXNT20 KNHC 121754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23W from 11N-19N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 46W/47W from 5N-13N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of a line from 12N45W to 10N49W. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 84W south of 22N to inland over Central America moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N17W and continues along 11N21W to 10N37W where the ITCZ begins and continues to east of the tropical wave near 9N46W then resumes west of the wave near 9N48W and continues to South America near 7N59W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 32W to the coast of Africa. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge anchored over east Texas extends a ridge axis across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel with a shortwave upper trough extending from the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee to central Mississippi. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N between 86W- 94W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms north of 24N between 82W-86W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are in the Straits of Florida south of 24N east of 86W. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south/central Florida to the coast of northeast Texas. The activity over the north Gulf will continue into the weekend. The surface ridge will shift north into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends over the far west Caribbean while a second upper ridge anchored east of the Leeward Islands covers the far east Caribbean. Wedge between these upper ridges is an upper trough centered along the north coast of Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north 18N to the coast of Cuba between 78W- 83W. The upper ridge over the east Caribbean is enhancing the activity associated with a surface trough that extends from 17N60W through the Lesser Antilles between Guadeloupe and Dominica to 11N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm west of the surface trough. The monsoon trough extends along 10N from Colombia to Costa Rica and into the east Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 11N between 77W-81W and south of 13N west of 81W. The easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers and thunderstorms from 13N-20N between 68W-80W. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move west of the area Saturday. The surface trough will move across the eastern Caribbean through this evening. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Saturday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are developing across the island this afternoon. The upper low is moving northwest away from the island and will continue west through Saturday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low is centered along the north coast of Cuba near 22N76W, covers most of the west Atlantic into the central Caribbean and is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms from Cuba to 27N west of 77W to the coast of Florida and through the Straits of Florida. A weak surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high near 28N74W across south/central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough north of 29N between 50W-70W is supporting a dissipating stationary front that extends through 32N58W along 27N62W 29N68W to 28N72W. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front. A surface trough is southeast this front extending from 27N52W 20N55W with isolated showers within 90/120 nm either side of the surface trough. The Atlantic surface trough along 52W/55W will drift west through Sunday while weakening. West Atlantic surface ridge will persist through Sunday night. 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