000 AXNT20 KNHC 121020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 12N21W to 20N21W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing centered near 12N22W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N- 20N between 15W-22W. Tropical wave extends from 08N43W to 15N44W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 42W-48W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 08N. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 42W-48W. Tropical wave extends from 10N81W to 21N83W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 80W-85W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N-22N between 76W- 85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 76W- 82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 09N28W to 10N37W to 07N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N43W to 04N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf this morning between an upper level anticyclone centered over North Texas and an upper level low centered over the SE Bahamas near 21N73W. More importantly...a maximum in mid-level energy is focused over the north-central Gulf waters generating an area of scattered showers and tstms N of 28N between 86W-94W. This area of convection is noted on the southern periphery of a weak area of surface low pressure centered across west-central Mississippi as a 1010 mb low that is expected to drift westward through Sunday and then move NE towards the Great Lakes region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the Mexico coast near 23N98W. Generally moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly stronger S-SW winds expected across the far northern waters through Sunday. The ridge axis will slowly lift northward through the weekend with moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along 83W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 17N-22N between 75W-85W. Near the southern extent of the wave and in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis...scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 08N-11N between 76W-82W. Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed across the Windward Islands from 11N62W to 16N61W. Maximum low-level moisture convergence and a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the eastern Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms generally E of 67W. Otherwise...trades will range from moderate to fresh breeze levels with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N between 70W-76W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered north of the island near 21N73W that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region during the day on Friday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered north of Hispaniola near 21N73W providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and stable conditions aloft. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the far western waters S of 27N W of 76W due to relatively weak diffluent flow aloft that extends southward across Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under fairly tranquil conditions this morning. Farther east...a dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 32N57W to 28N63W to 29N70W with isolated showers occurring within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1026 mb high centered across the Azores near 39N28W. One exception to the ridging across the central Atlc is a surface trough along 51W/52W with possible isolated showers occurring within 210 nm either side of the trough axis. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN