000 AXNT20 KNHC 120512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N20W to 20N20W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing centered near 12N20W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-17N between 13W-24W. Tropical wave extends from 05N43W to 13N42W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 38W-45W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 08N. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 40W-45W. Tropical wave extends from 11N80W to 21N82W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 77W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-22N between 78W-83W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N-11N between 78W-81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 09N24W to 09N36W to 07N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N43W to 06N53W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf this evening between an upper level anticyclone centered over North Texas and an upper level low centered over the Turks and Caicos islands near 21N72W. More importantly...a maximum in mid-level energy is focused over the north-central Gulf waters generating an area of scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 27N between 85W-94W. This area of convection is noted on the southern periphery of a weak area of surface low pressure centered across central Mississippi as a 1011 mb low that is expected to drift westward through Sunday and then move NE towards the Great Lakes region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the Mexico coast near 23N98W. Generally moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly stronger S-SW winds expected across the northern coast through Sunday. The ridge axis will slowly lift northward through the weekend with moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along 82W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 18N-22N between 78W-84W. Near the southern extent of the wave and in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis...scattered showers and strong tstms are occurring from 09N-11N between 78W-82W. Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed across the Windward Islands from 10N62W to 14N61W. Maximum low-level moisture convergence and a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the eastern Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms generally E of 67W. Otherwise...trades will range from moderate to fresh with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N between 70W-76W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered north of the island near 21N72W that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region during the day on Friday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered north of Hispaniola near 21N72W providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and stable conditions aloft. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the far western waters S of 27N W of 78W due to relatively diffluent flow aloft that extends southward across Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under fairly tranquil conditions this evening. Farther east...a dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 32N56W to 29N60W to 29N71W with isolated showers occurring within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1027 mb high centered across the Azores near 39N27W. One exception to the ridging across the central Atlc is a surface trough along 50W/51W with possible isolated showers occurring within 210 nm either side of the trough axis. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN