000 AXNT20 KNHC 120006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 16N18W to 07N19N moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. An area of isolated moderate convection is from 07N-16N between 10W-21W. Tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic from 14N40W to 04N42W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is now a low amplitude wave, with a surface trough well to the NW from 27N48W to 19N50W.. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The two distinct areas are well defined at 700 mb, especially the latter. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 40W-44W. Tropical wave is over the Central Caribbean from 21N78W to 11N78W moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is around Hispaniola,Jamaica,and E Cuba, from 16N-21N between 71W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 10N20W to 09N35W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 05N53W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb low is centered over S Mississippi near 32N89W. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are over most of the North Central Gulf of Mexico from 25N-33N between 86W-95W. Areas of localized flooding are likely over southern Mississippi, Louisiana, and eastern Texas. Isolated moderate convection is also over Florida, the Straits of Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over E Texas near 32N96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to drift W to SW Mississippi with continued convection over a large portion of the North Central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the Central Caribbean. See above. A surface trough is over the Windward Islands from 14N60W to 10N62W. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-16N between 58W- 68W. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over N Venezuela, N Colombia, the SW Caribbean S of 11N, Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is also over Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over Hispaniola near 20N72W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the SW Caribbean to continue to have convection. Also expect the tropical wave and surface trough to move west with significant convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection is presently over Hispaniola due to the upper level low. Expect the upper level low to move NW to the S Bahamas over the next 24 hours with convection. Also expect convection associated with the surface trough to be S of the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the Central Atlantic from 31N57W to 29N63W to 29N70W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N55W to 27N63W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. A surface trough is over the Central Atlantic from 27N48W to 19N50W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of this trough. In the upper levels, and area of diffluence is east of the Windward Islands enhancing convection. Expect in 24 hours for the front and prefrontal trough to be replaced with a single trough with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa