000 AXNT20 KNHC 111805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic was relocated to along 18W/19W from 8N-19N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave relocation is based on a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery moving off Africa. The north vorticity associated with this wave has moved further north and is now embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Isolated moderate convection is from 8N to the monsoon trough east of 21W to the coast of Africa. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic was relocated along 40W-41W from 5N-12N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave relocation is based on a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The north vorticity associated with this wave has moved further north and is now embedded within the mid-latitude flow. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 76W from 12N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within an area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-20N between 74W-79W and are being enhanced by an upper trough. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W and continues along 11N27W to east of the central Atlantic tropical wave near 7N40W. The ITCZ begins west of the wave near 6N43W and continues along 10N49W to 7N56W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 45 nm of a line from 5N33W to 7N37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge anchored over east Texas covers the southeast CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico with a shortwave upper trough extending from the Mississippi Delta to northwest Louisiana. A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low over central Mississippi into the Gulf near 30N89W southwest across the Mississippi Delta to 29N93W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N between 85W-93.5 to over the Florida panhandle to the Louisiana/Texas border. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are in the Straits of Florida east of 82W from Cuba to the Florida Keys. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to the central coast of Mexico. The surface trough over the north Gulf coast will drift west through Saturday. The surface ridge will shift north extending from south Florida to Texas in the wake of the surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends over the far west Caribbean while a second upper ridge anchored over the west Tropical Atlantic covers the far east Caribbean. Wedge between these upper ridges is an upper trough centered over Hispaniola. The activity associated with the tropical wave is being enhanced by this upper low/trough. The upper ridge over the east Caribbean is enhancing the activity associated with a surface trough approaching the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from 15N69w to across the Lesser Antilles near 14N61W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W along the north coast of Panama to a 1011 mb low near 9N81W then across Costa Rica into the east Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 12N between 77W-83W to inland over Panama. The central Caribbean tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean Friday. The surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles will move into the Caribbean later today. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing across the island this afternoon. The upper low currently over Hispaniola will drift west through Saturday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island today. The surface trough moving into the east Caribbean today will bring an increase in moisture Friday Saturday along the south coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low is centered over Hispaniola covers most of the west Atlantic and is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from Cuba to 29N west of 77W to the coast of Florida and through the Straits of Florida. An upper trough north of 29N between 50W-70W is supporting a dissipating stationary front that extends through 32N55W along 29N62W to 31N68W with a pre-frontal surface trough extending from 29N57W to 26N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm either side of the front. A surface trough is east of the Lesser Antilles along 49W/50W from 11N-16N generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N-16N east of 57W to across the Lesser Antilles. The north portion of the west Tropical Atlantic tropical wave is now a surface trough that extends along 47W/48W from 20N-28N with isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the surface trough. The north Vorticity of the east Tropical Atlantic tropical wave is causing broad troughing over the far east Atlantic with no shower activity. The Atlantic surface trough along 47W/84W will drift west through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW