000 AXNT20 KNHC 111018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N25W to 18N28W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 23W-30W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 09N47W to 20N48W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing as depicted in the global models between 44W-52W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 20N. No significant convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 12N73W to 21N72W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 68W-78W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 10N33W to 06N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N43W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N- 13N between 14W-25W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the axis between 37W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over eastern Texas near 32N97W and is providing much of the Gulf basin with northeasterly flow aloft. Embedded beneath this upper level ridging is a broad mid-level low and associated energy. Satellite imagery indicates plenty of scattered to broken clouds with isolated showers and tstms occurring mostly north of a surface ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula to the west- central Gulf. The strongest convective activity is noted on regional Doppler radar imagery N of 28N between 86W-93W. Otherwise...the surface ridge is anchored by a 1020 mb high centered off the coast of the Florida peninsula near 26N83W providing generally moderate anticyclonic winds with slightly stronger S-SW winds across the NE Gulf waters. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the basin through Sunday as the ridge axis slowly lifts northward through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in the NW Caribbean waters surrounding Jamaica. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 16N-21N between 75W-84W. Otherwise...a surface trough analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W is generating scattered showers and tstms across the islands and portions of the eastern Caribbean from 12N-17N between 56W-65W. The other important feature is a tropical wave along 72W moving across the central Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms generally across the waters N of 16N between 64W-75W...including Hispaniola. This activity is likely enhanced by favorable dynamics aloft due to the presence of an upper level low centered near 17N70W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevailing this morning. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N between 70W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered south of the island near 17N70W that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region during the day on Thursday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 28N79W that supports scattered showers and tstms occurring across the NW Bahamas and adjacent waters from 23N-30N between 75W-80W. To the northeast...an upper level trough extends across the central North Atlc and supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N55W to 30N62W to 31N68W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 27N-32N between 54W-68W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to 30N50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN