000 AXNT20 KNHC 102352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 18N21W to 07N22N moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. A very large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave axis from 08N-15N between 10W-20W. Tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic from 20N45W to 08N45W moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the wave environment north of 10N. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 07N- 10N between 47W-50W. Tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean from 20N68W to 10N69W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Isolated moderate convection is around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 16N-21N between 65W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 08N33W to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 07N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb low is centered along the coast of Mississippi near 30N88W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over most of the Central Gulf of Mexico from 24N- 32N between 83W-95W. Areas of localized flooding are likely over Louisiana, S Mississippi, and SW Alabama. Isolated moderate convection is also over Florida, and W Cuba. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over N Alabama near 34N88W. Upper level diffluence is enhancing the convection over the Central Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to drift NW with continued convection over a large portion of the North Central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over Jamaica. Further south, isolated moderate convection is over N Venezuela, N Colombia, the SW Caribbean S of 11N, Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Windward Islands S of 14N and E of 63W due to an approaching surface trough over the Atlantic from 16N55W to 10N56W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Caribbean, while an upper level low is centered over the E Caribbean near 17N69W. Upper level subsidence is over most of the W Caribbean Sea. Expect over the next 24 hours for the SW Caribbean to continue to have convection, while the SE Caribbean gets additional convection due to the Atlantic surface trough. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated moderate convection is presently over Hispaniola due to the tropical wave and the upper level low. Expect the upper level low to be over Hispaniola Thursday with convection. Also expect the surface trough to be SE of the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to the N Bahamas at 25N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of this trough. In the upper levels, and area of diffluence is east of the Windward Islands enhancing convection. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the central Atlantic near 31N57W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa