000 AXNT20 KNHC 101804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N-17N with axis near 22W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery from surface to 850 mb show the wave is in a dry environment, which is due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and dust. Satellite derived data also indicate the wave is in a region of mainly unfavorable or strong deep layer wind shear, which is limiting the convection to isolated showers within 200 nm west of the wave axis. Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 08N-20N with axis near 44W, moving W at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable deep layer wind shear region. However, the wave is in a very dry environment as indicated by CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery from surface to 850 mb and Meteosat enhanced imagery. This overall unfavorable environment hinders convection at the time. Tropical wave is in the Caribbean extending from 12N-20N with axis near 68W, moving W at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear region N of 15N. Water vapor imagery show an upper level low centered near 17N67W that along with shallow moisture in the north-central Caribbean support isolated showers from 15N-20N between 65W and 71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 08N27W to 06N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N41W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N- 12N E of 21W. Similar convection is from 06N-09N between 30W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper level ridge centered over northern Alabama covers the SE CONUS and the Gulf waters W of 84W, which provides diffluent flow aloft. Beneath the ridge...a low to mid-level area of low pressure prevail across the north-central and E Gulf waters focused at the surface by a 1014 mb low centered near 30N88W. Given the low to middle level moisture convergence...and upper level diffluence...scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N between 84W-94W. Over the SE, strong or unfavorable deep layer wind shear in part limits the convection to isolated showers. Remnant energy associated with a tropical wave now over E Pacific waters support a surface trough over the W Bay of Campeche with axis S of 22N along 95W. Otherwise...surface ridging continues to extend from the SW North Atlc region across the Florida Peninsula to 92W providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the influence of the low pressure area impacting the N-NE Gulf region. The low pressure system is forecast to move W-NW to NW and move inland by Thursday, with little or no development expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and its proximity to land. However, locally heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the N and NE coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms prevail in the SW basin S of 12N being supported mainly by the presence of the E Pacific monsoon trough. A surface trough was identified this morning within 320 nm E of the Lesser Antilles carrying abundant moisture that advects into SE Caribbean waters. This moisture along with a localized zone of divergence aloft support scattered heavy showers S of 14N E of 65W. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave moving to central Caribbean waters, which support isolated showers over Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico as well as both Islands adjacent waters. See the tropical waves section above for further details. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 16N between 70W-83W. Rainshowers are forecast to prevail in the SW basin and increase in the E basin today as the surface trough continues to move W to enter the basin early Thursday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low centered S of Hispaniola and a tropical wave with axis across the Mona Passage support isolated showers in the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are possible to continue through this evening. Fair weather is forecast Thursday, however conditions will deteriorate again Friday as moisture associated with a surface trough moves across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 29N76W to the S of Andros Island and continue to support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms N of 21N between 72W and 79W. This showers are quickly moving W and will provide showers to the Florida Peninsula this evening. A second surface trough is ahead of a stationary front N of the area generating scattered showers N of 28N between 56W and 61W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area. 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