000 AXNT20 KNHC 101009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 609 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N21W to 18N19W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing that has emerged off the coast of west Africa between 17W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 12W-24W. Tropical wave extends from 08N40W to 19N44W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the global models between 39W-48W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 19N. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 37W-44W. Tropical wave extends from 11N63W to 20N64W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 61W-68W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 11N89W to 17N89W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 87W-92W on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored to the northeast over the SW North Atlc near 23N78W. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 06N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N41W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 29W-35W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N-16N between 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery anchored over the SE CONUS providing much of the Gulf with diffluent flow aloft E of 93W. Beneath the ridging...a low to mid-level area of low pressure remains across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters focused on a 1013 mb low centered near 31N87W. Given the low to middle level moisture convergence...and upper level diffluence...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 27N between 84W-92W. Farther south...the upper level diffluence remains in place however the mid-level support is slightly weaker resulting in scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 27N between 82W-89W...including much of the SE Gulf waters. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region across the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf waters providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the influence of the low pressure area impacting the NE Gulf region. Across the NE Gulf...moderate to fresh S-SW winds are expected through Wednesday night. As the low pressure area across the SE CONUS weakens through Wednesday night...surface ridging will gradually lift northward with the axis anchoring along 27N by Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring across the southwestern waters...northern Colombia...and portions of Panama this morning. Within close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis...scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms are occurring S of 11N between 72W-84W. The other important feature is a tropical wave along 64W moving across the eastern Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms generally across the waters N of 15N E of 72W. This activity is likely enhanced by favorable dynamics aloft due to the presence of an upper level low centered over the Mona Passage near 18N68W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevailing and expected through Wednesday. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 16N between 70W-82W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered over the Mona Passage near 18N68W that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region during the day on Wednesday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 27N73W that supports isolated showers and tstms from 23N-31N between 72W-77W. To the northeast...an upper level trough extends from 37N59W to 32N66W and supports a stationary front analyzed from 33N54W to 32N61W to 33N69W. A surface trough extends from the front near 32N57W to 29N62W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 90 mn either side of the surface trough boundary. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to 30N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN