000 AXNT20 KNHC 100504 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N17W to 17N17W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing that has emerged off the coast of West Africa between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 11W-18W. Tropical wave extends from 08N41W to 20N41W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the global models between 38W-45W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 20N. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 39W-43W. Tropical wave extends from 11N62W to 20N62W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 55W-66W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 10N89W to 18N88W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 87W-92W on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored to the northeast over the SW North Atlc near 24N76W. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 07N30W to 07N40W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N40W to 07N45W to 10N54W to 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 28W-36W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 49W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery anchored over the SE CONUS providing much of the Gulf with diffluent flow aloft E of 93W. Beneath the ridging...a low to mid-level area of low pressure remains across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters focused on a 1010 mb low centered near 31N87W and a 1011 mb low centered near 30N91W. Given the low to middle level moisture convergence...and upper level diffluence...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 28N between 85W-92W. Farther south...the upper level diffluence remains in place however the mid-level support is slightly weaker resulting in scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 27N between 81W-89W...including the Florida Straits and SE Gulf waters. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region across the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf waters providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the influence of the low pressure area impacting the NE Gulf region. Across the NE Gulf...moderate to fresh S-SW winds are expected through Wednesday night. As the low pressure area across the SE CONUS weakens through Wednesday night...surface ridging will gradually lift northward with the axis anchoring along 27N by Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel region as northeasterly diffluent flow continues to support scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 21N this evening. The other important feature is a tropical wave along 62W moving across the eastern Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms across the waters E of 70W. This activity is likely enhanced by favorable dynamics aloft due to the presence of an upper level low centered near 17N66W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevailing and expected through Wednesday. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 15N between 70W-82W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered to the east of the island near 17N66W that will move middle to upper level instability into the region for Wednesday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 26N72W that supports isolated showers and tstms from 24N-29N between 70W-75W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of weak surface ridging anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N66W. To the northeast...an upper level trough extends from 38N58W to 32N66W and supports a stationary front analyzed along 32N between 55W- 68W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 29N between 53W-64W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to 29N47W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN