000 AXNT20 KNHC 100018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is along the Western Africa coast extending from 16N17W to 06N17N moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. A very large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave axis from 09N-20N between 05W-15W. Tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic from 20N39W to 08N39W moving W at 25 kt. Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the wave environment north of 10N. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 06N-09N between 28W-31W. Tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean from 20N60W to 10N61W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 09N-13N between 54W-60W. Tropical wave is moving over the Western Caribbean and Central America from 18N87W to 08N87W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at the surface. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 08N30W to 08N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N41W to 08N52W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 27W- 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. A surface trough extends from SW Georgia near 31N84W to the low center to SE Louisiana near 30N90W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over most of the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 92W, to include the NE Gulf States, Florida, and W Cuba. Areas of localized flooding are likely. Mostly fair weather is over the NW Gulf to include the Texas coast. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over Alabama near 33N87W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to drift NW with continued convection over a large portion of the northern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over Haiti, E Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Guatemala. Further south, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N, Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Caribbean, while an upper level low is centered over the E Caribbean near 17N65W. Upper level subsidence is over most of the Caribbean Sea. Expect over the next 24 hours for the SW Caribbean to continue to have convection, while the SE Caribbean gets additional convection due to the tropical wave currently along 60W/61W. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated moderate convection is presently over Haiti. Mostly fair weather is over the Dominican Republic mostly due to strong upper level subsidence. Expect mostly fair weather over Hispaniola Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N70W to 26N75W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the Bahamas from 24N- 30N between 69W-75W. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. In the upper levels, and area of diffluence is from 30N- 33N between 56W-60W with scattered moderate convection. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the central Atlantic near 31N57W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa