000 AXNT20 KNHC 091805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is coming off the Western Africa coast extending from 06N-16N with axis near 16W, which is forecast to move at 10 kt within the next 24 hours. The northern region of the wave is being engulfed by Saharan dry air and the wave, in general, is in a neutral to strong deep layer wind shear environment that limits the convection to isolated showers from 08N-11N E of 18W. Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-20N with axis near 35W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the wave environment, thus in part hindering convection at the time. Tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 10N- 20N with axis near 57W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the wave environment, in part limiting the convection to scattered showers from 09N-13N between 54W and 58W. Tropical wave is moving across Central America extending from 07N-17N with axis near 87W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is mainly in an unfavorable deep layer wind shear region while water vapor imagery show dry air subsidence in the Bay of Honduras. Shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean may support isolated showers W of 85W this afternoon. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N25W to 08N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N41W to 08N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N62W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 20W and 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge remains anchored over the SE CONUS providing the north-central and eastern Gulf with diffluent flow aloft. Beneath the upper ridge...a 1013 mb center of low pressure is centered near 29N86W along with a surface trough extending from 31N84W to the low center to 27N91W. This area of low pressure is supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms N of 24N E of 92W. Fresh to strong S-SW flow is S and E of the trough while moderate to fresh NW-W winds are N and W of the trough. A tropical wave in the E Pacific waters with axis near 95W extends northward to 19N, thus generating scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche S of 21N W of 92W. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region across the Florida Straits to the SE Gulf waters providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the influence of the low pressure area impacting the N-NE Gulf region. The surface low will move NW over southern Alabama by Wednesday morning, however showers associated with it will linger in the N-NE basin through late Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level low in over NW Caribbean waters, which along with shallow moisture in this region support isolated showers over W Cuba and adjacent waters while a tropical wave crossing Central America support similar shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and tstms are within 90 nm off the southern coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough. Another upper level low, this one better defined, is centered in the far NE Caribbean and support isolated showers and tstms across Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands and basin waters N of 15N E of 68W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions at the surface and aloft as indicated by CIRA LPW and Water Vapor imagery. A tight pressure gradient between ridging across the N-NE basin and lower pressure in the S-SW region, fresh to near gale-force winds developed across the central basin S of 17N; the strongest winds being along the coast of Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong dry air subsidence is still noted in Water Vapor Imagery, which is providing the Island with mostly stable and dry conditions. Fair weather and clear skies are expected through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level inverted trough over the Florida Peninsula and seaboard support isolated showers W of 76W, including the northern Bahamas. To the east a well marked area of diffluent flow aloft support a cluster of heavy showers and isolated tstms from 23N-30N between 68W and 74W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to 24N66W. 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