000 AXNT20 KNHC 091042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 09N31W to 20N35W moving W at 10 kt. This wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the global models between 30W-37W and a narrow maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 09N55W to 18N53W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 51W-60W. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 54W-57W. Tropical wave extends from 11N85W to 18N84W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 83W-87W on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored to the northeast over the SW North Atlc near 24N71W. Isolated moderate convection is near 11N84W. Tropical wave extends from 12N95W to 18N94W moving W at 10 kt. This wave is embedded within an overall moist environment with 700 mb troughing noted between 93W-96W over southern Mexico and the far southwestern Gulf waters. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-20N between 92W-97W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 09N25W to 09N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N41W to 07N47W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 23W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery anchored over the SE CONUS providing much of the Gulf with diffluent flow aloft E of 90W. Beneath the ridging...a low to mid-level area of low pressure remains across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters focused on a 1010 mb low centered near 31N88W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to 29N91W. Given the low to middle level moisture convergence...and upper level diffluence...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N between 82W-90W. Farther south...the upper level diffluence is slightly weaker supporting isolated showers this morning S of 25N E of 90W...including the Florida Straits. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region across the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf waters providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the influence of the low pressure area impacting the NE Gulf region. Across the NE Gulf...moderate to fresh S-SW winds are expected through Wednesday. As the low pressure area across the SE CONUS weakens through Wednesday night...surface ridging will gradually lift northward with the axis anchoring along 27N/28N by Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring W of 85W with a weak tropical wave analyzed along 85W and scattered showers and tstms occurring to the W of the wave axis S of 17N between 87W-91W. Otherwise...a few isolated showers and tstms continue to diminish across portions of Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters N of 20N between 76W-86W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft due to an upper level anticyclone centered over western Hispaniola. Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are expected through Tuesday. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 16N between 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the island and is providing a mostly stable and dry environment aloft. Fair conditions and clear skies are expected through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered north of the Bahamas near 28N80W with an associated trough axis extending south to over eastern Cuba. This feature is enhancing scattered showers and tstms across the far SW North Atlc waters S of 31N W of 75W. To the east... mid-level diffluence is generating isolated showers and tstms occurring from 24N-30N between 67W-74W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N65W. Another weak surface trough extends across the central Atlc from 24N57W to 29N53W with no significant weather occurring in the vicinity of the boundary. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to 23N47W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN