000 AXNT20 KNHC 082353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 19N32W to 10N29W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models between 27W-33W and is somewhat co-located within a moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted with the wave at this time as Saharan dust and dry air prevail in the area. A tropical wave was analyzed across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N51W to 10N52W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave is not as well defined as the previous wave. The moisture surge associated with this wave is more subtle and confined to near the ITCZ. Saharan dust and dry air is also in the environment of this wave which inhibits convection at this time. A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean with axis from 20N82W to 09N83W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a subtle 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. A tropical wave is moving over central America and the adjacent EPAC with axis extending from 19N91W to 10N92W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded within an overall moist environment as depicted in SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed across the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters south from 08N to 12N between 90W and 94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 10N30W to 10N39W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed in an area from 07N to 10N between 24W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is moving across the extreme eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends from a broad 1010 mb surface low over south-central Alabama across the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to 29N89W. a broad fetch of southwesterly winds covers the Gulf north of 26N and east of 91W with diffluent flow aloft prevailing over much of the same area. As a result a large swath of multilayered clouds with embedded showers and weakening thunderstorms cover the eastern half of the Gulf and southeastern U.S. This overall pattern is expected to persist over the several days resulting in very heavy rainfall over portions of the Florida panhandle and the deep south. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a subtle surface ridge that extends west om the west Atlantic, across South Florida to northeast Mexico. Over the next 24 hours the tropical wave is forecast to move west into the EPAC. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated showers are observed over the south-central Caribbean waters enhanced by the proximity of the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 11N between 77W-83W. The edge of a 1446 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass depicted moderate to fresh trades across the basin from 11N to 16N between 70W and 74W. Generally fair skies prevailed over the basin beneath moderate to locally strong subsidence. Over the next 24 hours the tropical wave to continue moving west away from the Caribbean waters with the next tropical wave forecast to enter the east Caribbean by Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... An isolated thunderstorm has erupted over east-central Haiti in an otherwise overall fair weather pattern. The upper ridge currently over the west/central Atlantic will drift southwest to over the island by tonight then continue west of the island through midweek. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered north of the Bahama Islands near 29N78W with an associated trough extending southward to east-central Cuba. This feature is enhancing isolated showers over the far west Atlantic mainly west of 76W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N70W to 24N72W with scattered moderate convection mainly east of the surface trough from 24N to 28N between 67W and 72W. A 1020 mb surface high is centered to the east of the trough near 28N62W. A dissipating stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 28N66W with no significant weather. The remainder of the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the northeast of the area. Over the next 24 hours the western Atlantic surface trough will drift northwest and weaken. Little change is expected elsewhere. 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