000 AXNT20 KNHC 081717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 19N31W to 10N27W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models between 20W-30W and is within moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted with the wave at this time as Saharan dust and dry air prevail in the area. A tropical wave was analyzed across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 17N49W to 10N50W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Saharan dust and dry air is also in the environment of this wave which inhibits convection at this time. A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean with axis from 21N80W to 09N80W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC with axis extending from 20N90W to 10N90W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Moderate moisture prevails in this wave's environment as noted in SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed across the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters south of 12N between 88W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 10N27W to 08N38W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N54W. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 100 nm to the north of these boundaries between 28W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is moving across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the eastern portion of the basin enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly north of 24N and east of 91W. To the north of this activity, a surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 29N88W with scattered moderate convection. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a weak surface ridge that extends west from the west Atlantic, across South Florida to northeast Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate southeasterly flow across the basin. Expect within the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west into the EPAC with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated showers are observed over the south-central Caribbean waters enhanced by the proximity of the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 11N between 79W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin except between 68W-78W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west away from the Caribbean waters. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. The upper ridge currently over the west/central Atlantic will drift southwest to over the island by tonight then continue west of the island through midweek. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered north of the Bahama Islands near 28N78W and extends its trough south to central Cuba. This feature is enhancing isolated showers over the far west Atlantic mainly west of 76W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N70W to 23N72W with scattered moderate convection from 25N- 28N between 67W-74W. A 1020 mb surface high is centered to the east of the trough near 25N62W. A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 26N46W to 32N40W with no significant convection associated to it. The remainder of the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge. Expect during the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic surface trough to drift northwest. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA