000 AXNT20 KNHC 080602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 19N28W to 11N26W moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 46W/47W from 10N-18N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends from 21N76W to 10N79W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is along the leading edge of a surge moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 85W south of 21N to inland over Central America moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W and continues along 11N24W to 11N33W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N47W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 6N-10N between 48W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough at 08/0300 UTC extends from a 1010 mb low over northeast Florida near 30N83W into the Gulf along 27N85W to near 25N89W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side of the surface trough north of 27N. A surface trough off the east coast of the Florida peninsula is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N-27N east of 84W to over Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 22N-25N between 91W-95W and in the east Bay of Campeche south of 21N east of 92W to inland over the Yucatan. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to northeast Texas. The surface trough over the northeast Gulf will linger through Monday. The surface ridge will meander from south Florida to northeast Texas through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low is centered over the Bahamas near 26N77W and extends an upper trough to over central Cuba. An upper ridge anchored in the west/central Atlantic covers the east Caribbean east of 75W. Evening scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving off Cuba into the northwest Caribbean. The monsoon trough extends south of Panama and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 10N west of 80W to inland over Panama. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms have passed over Trinidad tonight and are within 60 nm along the coast of Venezuela between 62W-64W. The western tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean by Monday. The eastern tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean on Monday. The next tropical wave will approach the east Caribbean by midweek. ...HISPANIOLA... Evening showers and thunderstorms over Haiti have dissipated leaving skies clear across the island tonight. The upper ridge currently over the west/central Atlantic will drift southwest to over the island by Monday night then continue west of the island by midweek. This will decrease the duration of shower activity. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper low centered over the north Bahama Islands near 26N77W extends south over central Cuba and is supporting a weak surface trough at 08/0300 UTC that extends along 79W from 25N-31N generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms west of the surface trough to over Florida south of 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of the surface trough south of 29N. The upper ridge that covers the east Caribbean is anchored near 25N67W and is supporting a low to mid level trough that covers the area from 22N-27N along 70W. The upper ridge is also providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 23N-28N between 65W-72W. A surface ridge covers the remainder of the west Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high near 26N62W and extending west across south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough over the east/central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the region near 32N41W to 26N45W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-30N between 48W-54W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high well northeast of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through 32N33W to 21N44W. The low to mid level trough over the west Atlantic will drift northwest through early this week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW