000 AXNT20 KNHC 072356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis extending from near 20N26W to 11N26W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is embedded in a poleward surge of moderate moisture and a sharp 700 mb trough between 23W and 29W. The wave is also embedded in Saharan dust, which is inhibiting convection with the wave at this time. A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis extending from near 18N44W to 10N45W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is embedded within a sharp 700 mb trough. Dry air covers the northern half of the wave. No deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis extending from near 21N74W to 11N76W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a moderately moist environment. Troughing is evident at 700 mb between 73W and 78W. The wave is enhancing afternoon and evening thunderstorms over Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Otherwise, no deep convection is noted with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with an axis extending from near 23N82W to 14N83W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing in a moderately moist environment. No deep convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W and continues west to 11N31W, where the ITCZ begins and then extends along 11N40W to 10N50W to 10N59W. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm south and 90 nm north of the ITCZ axis, and from 05N to 11N between 20W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low over northern Florida near 30N83W to 27N86W to 25N89W. The combination of this surface trough and a very moist airmass supports scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms north of 24N east of 86W, and within 150 nm of a line from 27N86W to 23N94W. Another surface trough is located over the southwestern Gulf and extends from 23N91W to 17N94W. This trough is void of convection. Weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic, across south Florida and the central Gulf, to the northern Texas coast. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds cover the northeast Gulf north of the trough axis. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds cover the Gulf basin this evening. Over the next 24 hours the trough over the northeastern Gulf is forecast to drift northward with enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity expected to continue over the northeastern Gulf through at least Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are over the central and western Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Isolated moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, the offshore waters of the Caribbean is void of deep convection. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds cover the majority of the Caribbean this evening. Over the next 24 hours scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western Caribbean as the tropical waves continue to cross the region. ...HISPANIOLA... The combination of a departing tropical wave to the west of Hispaniola and an upper low over the Bahamas supports scattered thunderstorms over the island this evening. Expect an overall decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage over Hispaniola over the next 24 hours as the wave and upper low move away from the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of an upper low over the Bahamas and a mid level trough along 70W between 23N and 27N supports clusters of moderate convection from 24N to 27N between 66W and 72W. Although a surface trough was analyzed in the vicinity of this convection, recent scatterometer data indicate that no surface feature is evident with this system. The upper low also supports scattered thunderstorms south of 30N west of 77W, including the northern Bahamas. A 1020 mb high is centered near 26N60W and has an axis that extends westward across southern Florida. An upper trough over the central Atlantic supports a complex series of surface lows and fronts over the region. A cold front extends from near a surface low north of our area to 31N51W to 29N55W. A warm front extends from near the same low to 31N50W to 29N48W. Another surface low of 1017 mb is centered near 30N43W with a weak cold front extending from the low to 27N48W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N between 40W and 54W. Two tropical waves over the tropical Atlantic are referenced in the tropical waves section above. Over the next 24 hours convection will continue near the mid level trough over the waters northeast of the Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ LATTO