000 AXNT20 KNHC 062351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The axis extends from near 20N24W to 10N25W, moving westward at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a poleward surge of moderate moisture with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields between 20W and 26W. No deep convection is currently noted with this wave. A low amplitude tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis along 40W/41W from 08N to 14N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant moisture surrounds this wave south of 10N as noted on the TPW product. A tilted 700 mb trough is evident across this region. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 38W and 45W. A well defined tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending along 69W, moving westward at around 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is generating some convective activity over parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, including the Mona Passage. This wave is well depicted in 700 mb streamlines and the TPW product, where a high amplitude northward bulge of moisture is seen. The San Juan Doppler radar shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. The wave is also producing disorganized cloudiness and showers just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is expected to move northwestward and northward, and an area of low pressure could form in the Atlantic by the middle of next week between Florida and Bermuda. This wave will move across the central Caribbean Sunday through Monday, and through the western Caribbean Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and extends from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to near 11N77W, moving westward at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is at the leading edge of a surge of deep moisture, and is subtly depicted in 700 mb model streamlines. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and probably isolated thunderstorms over parts of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This wave will move west across the central Caribbean through tonight and across the western Caribbean on Sun. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 17N16W and continues along 12N20W to 11N30W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N42W and continues to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 45W and 48W. Similar convection is within about 15 nm of a line 09N50W to 08N53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Earl dissipate this morning over the mountains of Mexico and the last advisory was issued at 06/1500 UTC. The remnants of Earl are still supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of west-central Mexico where a surface trough is analyzed on the 18Z surface map. Another surface trough is over the northeastern Gulf, extending from the western Florida Panhandle to near 27N88W. This trough supports scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf of Mexico and parts of northern Florida. A diffluent pattern aloft is also helping to support this convective activity. Some slight development of this cloudiness with embedded thunderstorms is possible before the system moves inland over the southeastern United States in a couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall over northern Florida is anticipated. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region with a 1017 mb high pressure located near 27N91W. The ridge is producing variable and light winds over the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted mainly south of 24N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical wave are moving westward across the basin. Please refer to the tropical waves section for details. Moderate to fresh trade winds are blowing across much of the east and central Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt on Monday in association with the passage of the tropical wave currently located along 69W. Over the next 24 hours convection will spread across the central Caribbean in association with this tropical wave forecast to reach eastern Cuba on Sunday. On Tuesday, fresh to strong winds in the 20-30 kt range and building seas up to 11-12 ft are forecast by the computer models to dominate the south-central Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the Dominican Republic in association with the tropical wave currently located along 69W. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the remainder of Hispaniola tonight and Sunday with the passage of the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is dominated by a weak surface ridge, with a couple of 1020 mb highs located near 30N35W and near 26N61W. A weakness in the ridge between these highs is occurring due to a frontal system that has entered the forecast area. The front extends from 31N42w to 30N46W to beyond 31N51W. Scattered showers are noted ahead of the frontal boundary. Two tropical waves are also over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours convection will continue along the northern portion of the waves and near the frontal system over the central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR