000 AXNT20 KNHC 061200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Earl is centered near 19.0N 97.5W at 06/1200 UTC or about 85 nm west of Veracruz, Mexico moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gust to 35 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Earl made landfall just south of Veracruz, Mexico near 06/0200 UTC. Since then Earl continues to move further inland. The main threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico and will continue even after the cyclone dissipates. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf waters south of a line from 24N97W 24N93W to 19N91W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave off the coast of Africa extends along 20W/21W from 10N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 17W-20W. Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 35W from 5N-13N moving west 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 6N-10N between 34W-37W. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64W/65W from 11N-21N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N-20N between 60W-62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-22N between 59W-68W and south of 14N to inland over South America between 61W-67W including Trinidad. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 72W/73W from 12N-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is within a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the Turks and Caicos from 20N-23N between 69W-73W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N17W through the Cabo Verde Islands and continues along 10N27W to 8N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N51W to 9N60W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 7N-10N between 37W-41W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-9N between 23W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern this morning for the south Gulf of Mexico is the rainfall from Tropical Storm Earl. See special features above. A shortwave upper trough is moving south from South Carolina to south Alabama with a weak surface trough extending from south Georgia across the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee to 28N89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N east of 89W to inland over Florida and to the north Gulf coast. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south/central Florida to Texas with a 1016 mb high near 27N86W. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipated late tonight. The surface trough over the northeast Gulf will linger through the weekend into early next week. The surface ridge will persist into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over the northwest Caribbean near 20N86W extending to the central Caribbean near 15N77W while an upper ridge anchored in the central Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is centered over the Bahamas extending south across Cuba to south of Jamaica. The upper ridge over the west Caribbean is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 11N west of 80W to the coast of Cuba and the Yucatan and inland over the Central America. The activity over the east Caribbean is associated with the tropical wave along 64W/65W. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the west Caribbean Sunday and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night. The tropical wave east Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean on Sunday night and the west Caribbean on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across the island this morning. However, showers and thunderstorms are already in the Mona Passage and will move inland over the Dominican Republic this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will then continue through today into Sunday as the next tropical wave moves across the island. Skies will clear Monday as the both tropical waves move away from the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough north of 30N is supporting a stationary front that dips south to 31N46W with a pre-frontal trough that extends from 31N41W along 28N45W to 27N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm either side of the surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through 32N30W to a 1019 mb high near 28N38W then west to a 1020 mb high near 27N63W continuing west across south/central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will meander across the north portion of the west Atlantic through Monday. The north portion of the tropical waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW