000 AXNT20 KNHC 060536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 19.0N 95.9W at 06/0300 UTC or about 20 nm southeast of Veracruz, Mexico moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gust to 60 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Earl was expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and Alvarado, Mexico. The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf waters south of a line from 23N98W to 19N91W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave off the coast of Africa extends along 18W/19W from 10N-20N moving west near 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is leading a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N-13N between 17W-20W. Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 33W from 6N-15N moving west 10-15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 5N-10N between 31W-36W. Tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles extends along 61W/62W from 11N-20N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-20N between 60W-63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-22N between 58W-67W. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 70W/71W from 12N-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from over Haiti to the Turks and Caicos from 17N-22N between 71W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N16W and continues along 9N26W to 7N39W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 8N55W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 8N-10N between 36W-38W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N between 24W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern tonight is the rainfall from Tropical Storm Earl. See special features above. A shortwave upper trough is moving south from South Carolina to central Alabama generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N east of 88W to inland over Florida and the north Gulf coast. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across Florida to Texas with a 1015 mb high near 28N87W. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late Saturday and dissipated by Sunday morning. The surface ridge will meander across the Gulf through the weekend. A series of weak surface troughs will pass east across the northeast Gulf through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over the northwest Caribbean near 19N85W extending to the central Caribbean near 15N77W while an upper ridge anchored in the central Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is centered between the Bahamas and east Cuba extending south over the north-central Caribbean from east Cuba to Hispaniola. The upper ridge over the west Caribbean is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N-20N west of 81W to inland over the Yucatan. The activity over the northeast Caribbean is associated with the two tropical waves. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the west Caribbean Saturday night and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night. The tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles will reach the central Caribbean on Sunday night and the west Caribbean on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over Haiti with isolated showers over the remainder of the island tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through today and Sunday as the next tropical wave moves over the island. Skies will clear Monday as the two tropical waves move away from the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through 32N30W to a 1020 mb high near 27N39W then west to a 1021 mb high near 27N55W continuing west across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will meander across the north portion of the west Atlantic through the weekend. The north portion of the tropical waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW