000 AXNT20 KNHC 060004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.8N 95.0W at 05/2100 UTC or about 48 nm NW of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gust to 60 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection with scattered tstms are occurring S of 22N W of 92W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the E Gulf of Campeche S of 20N. Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is inland W Africa with axis near 16W. Global models wave diagnostics indicate this wave will come off the coast later tonight. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air and dust are wrapping the wave axis to the N and NW, thus limiting the convection to a cluster of heavy showers from 09N-12N between 16W and 19W. Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 06N-16N with axis near 32W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable deep layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern wave environment, thus limiting the convection to scattered showers from 05N-10N between 28W and 37W. Tropical wave extends from 08N-20N with axis near 58W, moving W at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave remains in a favorable deep layer wind shear region that along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered showers and tstms from 16N-19N between 59W and 65W. Showers are expected to affect Puerto Rico and adjacent waters tonight and Saturday. Tropical wave extends from 10N-20N with axis near 68W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave remains in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear that along with diffluent flow aloft support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 17N-21N between 66W and 73W. Showers will continue across Hispaniola tonight and Saturday morning. The wave will move to the western Caribbean Saturday before moving west of the sea on Sun. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 14N17W and continues along 10N27W to 06N38W where the ITCZ begins and then continues to 08N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Earl continues to affect the SW Gulf waters. Please refer to the special features section for more details. Diffluent regions within the SE periphery of an upper level anticyclone centered near southern Mississippi support scattered showers and isolated tstms over the NE Gulf N of 25N E of 90W. Strong dry air subsidence support clear skies and fair weather elsewhere. Surface ridging continues to dominate the northern region of the basin being anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 28N91W, which provides gentle variable winds N of 25N. Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection with scattered tstms are occurring S of 22N W of 92W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the E Gulf of Campeche S of 20N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Trailing moisture associated with tropical storm Earl along with a divergent environment in the upper levels support scattered showers and isolated tstms W of 77W. Over the north-central Caribbean, a tropical wave support scattered heavy showers and tstms across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A second tropical wave has its axis just east of the Lesser Antilles with scattered showers and tstms associated with it already affecting the NE Caribbean waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades cover the Caribbean tonight. Showers are forecast to persist in the north- central and northeast Caribbean during the weekend associated with the westward moving tropical waves. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave starting to move into the central Caribbean support scattered heavy showers and tstms across Hispaniola and adjacent waters tonight. A second tropical wave currently moving across the Lesser Antilles, will bring more showers to the Island the rest of the weekend. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high near 27N55W. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. The northern portion of a pair of tropical waves will move through the SW N Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Sunday morning. Two other tropical waves will cross the central and eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS