000 AXNT20 KNHC 051752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.6N 94.6W at 05/1800 UTC or about 30 nm north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico and about 100 nm east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gust to 45 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Earl is moving along the coastline of south Mexico. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. Numerous moderate convection is south of 21N west of 93W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 23N west of 91W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave remains inland over Africa along 14W, expected to move offshore over the next 24 hours. A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis that extends from near 17N30W to 05N31W, moving westward at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in an area of high moisture...and is helping to enhance convection along the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis that extends from near 20N55W to 08N57W, moving westward at around 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is depicted well in 700 mb streamlines in model fields, and coincides with the greatest poleward extent of convection in the area. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm west and 90 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with an axis that extends from near 21N67W to 10N68W, moving westward at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a surge of deep moisture, and is subtly depicted in 700 mb model streamlines. Scattered thunderstorms are within 180 nm of either side of the wave axis, including over Puerto Rico. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical Atlantic near 19N16W and continues along 13N20W to 09N30W to 09N36W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 12N53W. Scattered moderate convection are from 05N to 12N between 13W and 33W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 33W and 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Earl is affecting the southwestern Gulf south of 23N this afternoon. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A surface trough is over the northeastern Gulf, extending from near 28N89W to 31N84W. This trough and upper level diffluence supports scattered to numerous thunderstorms from within 180 nm south and southeast of the surface trough to the northern Gulf coast. A weak ridge axis extends form central Florida to the central Gulf, then to near the Texas/Louisiana border. Variable gentle to moderate winds cover the northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds cover the remainder of the Gulf north of 25N. Moderate easterly winds cover the southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds extend well north of Earl from 22N to 25N over the southwestern Gulf. Over the next 24 hours Earl will move inland over Mexico, with waning affects over the southwestern Gulf. The trough over the northeastern Gulf will persist with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffluent environment over the northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate convection and numerous showers from 13N to 21N west of 77W, and isolated moderate convection south of 13N west of 81W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades cover the Caribbean this afternoon, except light to gentle over the southwestern Caribbean and southeastern Caribbean south of 12N. Over the next 24 hours convection is expected to persist over the northwestern Caribbean. Convection will spread over the central Caribbean associated with the tropical wave. Another tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight and Saturday with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the Dominican Republic today ahead of a tropical wave. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over Hispaniola through tonight as the tropical wave crosses the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through a 1021 mb high near 27N54W, continuing west across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. The northern portion of a pair of tropical waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Saturday night. Two other tropical waves will cross the central and eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ LATTO