000 AXNT20 KNHC 050551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.3N 92.3W at 05/0600 UTC or about 35 nm southwest of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico and about 120 nm east of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gust to 45 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Earl is currently inland over south Mexico. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf waters south of 23N between 89W-95W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave was introduced inland over Africa. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 19N49W to 8N51W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 45 nm of line from 16N50W to 17N52W. Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 62W from 11N- 21N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Wave is along the western edge of an upper ridge enhancing any shower activity. See Caribbean section below. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W and continues along 9N25W 6N36W to 6N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 5N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough between 19W-23W, within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 27W-33W, and from 10N-12N between 29W- 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern tonight is the rainfall from Tropical Storm Earl. See special features above. An upper ridge is anchored over the Mississippi Delta of Louisiana covering the Gulf north of 24N east of 94W. A weak surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low inland over south Georgia across the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee to 26N86W generating clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N east of 90W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to northeast Texas. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend. Tropical storm winds will soon be across the southern Bay of Campeche then shift west through early Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Anticyclonic flow over the west Caribbean is associated with Tropical Storm Earl while an upper ridge anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is centered over the Turks and Caicos extending south over the north-central Caribbean from the Windward Passage to over Hispaniola. The upper ridge associated with Earl is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within 120 nm of line from 12N80W to 18N84W including portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the remainder of the west Caribbean north of 11N west of 79W. The upper ridge over the east Caribbean is generating isolated showers north of 11N east of 65W. The winds associated with Tropical Storm Earl will continue will diminishing and the seas subsiding as Earl continues to move further away. The tropical wave over the east Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean Friday night and the west Caribbean Saturday night. A second tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Saturday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening have diminished across the island leaving the skies clear tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will return early this morning as the tropical wave moves toward the island. This activity will encompass the entire island by Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through 32N35W 27N50W then west to a 1022 mb high near 27N60W continuing west across south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist into the weekend. The north portion of the tropical waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW