000 AXNT20 KNHC 050003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is near 17.6N 90.8W at 04/2100 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Latest satellite imagery show numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms over the Yucatan Peninsula extending 100 nm off the coast into the E Bay of Campeche. Scattered heavy showers are across Guatemala and positions of S Mexico. Earl is forecast to weaken further to a tropical depression by late tonight or early Friday morning as it tracks further inland. Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N-19N with axis near 49W, moving W at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave remains in a favorable deep layer wind shear region, Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment, thus hindering the development of deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb continue to show dry air wrapping the northern and western sides of the wave axis. Isolated showers are possible from 10N-14N between 45W and 56W. Tropical wave extends from 10N-21N with axis near 61W, moving W at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave remains in a region of favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb and TPW imagery show the wave is embedded in a very moist environment that along with an upper level diffluent environment support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 15N-22N between 58W and 65W. This wave will continue to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight, then move through the central Caribbean Friday and the western Caribbean Saturday before moving west of the sea on Sun. Gusty winds can be expected with the wave as it quickly tracks across the Caribbean basin. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from near 10N14W to 08N25W to 07N40W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 17W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from the Atlantic to the Florida Peninsula. As of 2100 UTC, a 1012 mb surface low developed over SW Georgia near a region where an upper level anticyclone is centered. A surface trough extends from the low SW across the NE Gulf of Mexico from 30N84W to 26N86W. The combination of middle level divergence, the surface trough and abundant moisture in the region is resulting in isolated showers and tstms N of 26N E of 89W. In the far southern portion of the Gulf, the leading rainbands from Tropical Storm Earl provide scattered showers to the Yucatan Channel and numerous heavy showers to the eastern Bay of Campeche. This activity is forecast to gradually spread westward to the far southwest Gulf through Friday night. Strong to near gale force NE winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche from the tight pressure gradient associated with Tropical Storm Earl. These winds are forecast to decrease late Friday into Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Earl is inland and weakening over northern Guatemala tonight. See Special Features section above. Water vapor imagery and TPW imagery show a large envelop of very deep moisture trailing behind Earl that covers great portions of the western Caribbean. This moisture is within a broad area of surface low pressure that support numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms off NE Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers are elsewhere N of 12N W of 78W. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the NW Caribbean from 17N to 21N W of 85W with seas ranging from 8 to 12 ft. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave currently moving across the Lesser Antilles that will generate showers and tstms over the NE Caribbean tonight. See the tropical waves section for further details. The pressure gradient throughout supports moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere, with the high end of this range confined to the north-central portions of the sea. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle to upper level low is centered over Turks and Caicos extending a trough S over Hispaniola, thus supporting isolated showers and tstms over northern Haiti and NW Dominican Republic. The upper low is forecast to move west and weaken over the next 24 hours. However, a tropical wave currently in the far E Caribbean will generate showers across the Island starting Friday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main features in the Atlc are two tropical waves discussed above. The remainder basin continues under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs, one SW of the Azores Islands and the other to the SE. Little change expected the next two days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS