000 AXNT20 KNHC 041021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered near 17.3N 88.9W at 04/0900 UTC or about 43 nm WSW of Belize City Belize moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is over Belize from 16N-18N between 88W-90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere over the NW Caribbean and Central America from 13N-21N between 85W-91W. Hurricane Earl is now inland, and is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later this morning. Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, through tonight. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 20N45W to 07N44W moving west at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 45W- 48W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 21N55W to 09N56W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 17N-20N between 56W-60W. Isolated moderate convection is also from 07N-11N between 52W- 57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W to 13N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 09N45W and continues to the coast of South America near 08N59W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N-11N between 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf of Mexico along 28N. Further south, the leading edge of precipitation from Hurricane Earl has reached the Yucatan Channel and the eastern Bay of Campeche. 10-15 kt mostly easterly winds are noted over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Florida and the NE Gulf from 28N-31N between 84W-88W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the N Gulf near 30N89W. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of winds and convection over S Mexico, and the the Bay of Campeche due to Earl. CARIBBEAN SEA... The prime focus today is Hurricane Earl inland over Belize. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the E Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection is S of Cuba from 19N-22N between 78W-81W, and E of Nicaragua from 11N-16N between 78W- 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia from 02N-10N between 73W-78W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered N of Hispaniola near 23N70W producing scattered showers along the N coast of Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, scattered showers linger over Hispaniola. Expect more scattered showers this afternoon and evening during maximum heating hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 34N31W with a ridge axis extending west to N Florida. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the central Atlantic near 24N44W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with convection for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa