000 AXNT20 KNHC 040548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered near 17.4N 87.6W at 04/0300 UTC or about 35 nm E of Belize City Belize moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is along the coast of Belize from 15N-19N between 85W- 9 W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere over the NW Caribbean and Central America from 11N-21N between 83W-93W. Hurricane Earl is close to making landfall. Earl is expected to also produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, through Thursday night. These rains could result in life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 19N42W to 08N44W moving west 20 kt over the past 24 hours. A 1013mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 15N42W. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 43W-47W. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 21N54W to 10N55W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 14N-20N between 54W-59W. Isolated moderate convection is also from 08N-11N between 50W- 57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N28W to 10N39W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 09N45W and continues to the coast of South America near 09N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf of Mexico along 28N. Further south, the leading edge of precipitation from Hurricane Earl has reached the Yucatan Channel and the eastern Bay of Campeche. 10-15 kt mostly easterly winds are noted over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Florida and the NE Gulf from 29N-31N between 83W-88W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the N Gulf near 30N89W. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of winds and convection over S Mexico, and the the Bay of Campeche due to Hurricane Earl. CARIBBEAN SEA... The prime focus tonight is Hurricane Earl about to make landfall. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the E Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 20N-22N between 78W-80W, and E of Honduras from 13N-17N between 78W-82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over N Colombia from 04N-10N between 73W-78W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered N of Hispaniola near 23N70W with strong subsidence. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, scattered showers linger over Hispaniola. Expect more scattered showers Thursday afternoon and evening during maximum heating hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 33N34W with a ridge axis extending west to N Florida. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the central Atlantic near 24N44W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with convection for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa